Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Internet Gambling > Internet Gambling
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 11-27-2005, 11:13 AM
Bigdaddydvo Bigdaddydvo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 231
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My quick math tells me this is a marginally winning. Assume a 1% house edge in BJ playing perfect strategy. X is your EV.

.49X - .51X + (.1)(.51X) = .031X or a 3% advantage.

Anyone read this any differently?

[/ QUOTE ]

Aside from the fact that you gave the house a 2% advantage, I believe your method is ok IF you are going to play a single bet...and either double your money or get a 10% rebate on your loss...

In reality, the house advantage accounts for the 1.5 payoff of a blackajack and the times you double/split. So the real calculation is more complex, but the idea is generally the same...

Acme

[/ QUOTE ]

This should work over time as well. It is comparable to betting on "The Banker" in Baccaret. I believe Banker has 2-3% advantage, but you must pay a 5% vig on your winnings. In this case you are a 1-2% underdog in BJ, and the house is paying YOU a 10% vig on its winnings. I'll say it again...I think this promotion is +EV.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11-27-2005, 01:33 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Planet Earth but relocating
Posts: 2,193
Default Re: 10% refund question

Suppose you made 1000 $10 bets with a HA of only 1%. You would expect to lose $100 over that span and would be rebated $10 still losing $90. All they are doing is lowering the house advantage by 10% from 1% to .9%, still -EV.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11-27-2005, 01:45 PM
act act is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 26
Default Re: 10% refund question

It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11-27-2005, 01:56 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Planet Earth but relocating
Posts: 2,193
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Does that mean if I bet on the flip of a coin only once I have an edge but if i do it twice it is -EV?
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11-27-2005, 02:04 PM
Bigdaddydvo Bigdaddydvo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 231
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

[/ QUOTE ]

This clearly does not make sense. Each event is independent..either it is +EV or not.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11-27-2005, 02:25 PM
Benholio Benholio is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 238
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

[/ QUOTE ]

This clearly does not make sense. Each event is independent..either it is +EV or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Each event isn't independant. The 10% refund is given on the net total of all hands played. If you lose the first hand, then win the next 5, you don't get any refund back. You can't count the refund into the EV of each single hand if you are playing more than 1 hand.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11-27-2005, 02:30 PM
AcmeSalesRep AcmeSalesRep is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 25
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose you made 1000 $10 bets with a HA of only 1%. You would expect to lose $100 over that span and would be rebated $10 still losing $90. All they are doing is lowering the house advantage by 10% from 1% to .9%, still -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]


A 10% rebate on losses creates a +EV situation. You are just not looking at it properly.

Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...

Deposit $100 and bet it all:
49% of the time, I end up with $200;
51% of the time, I end up with $10.

On average, I will end up with $103.

Clearly, this is +EV.

Acme
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11-27-2005, 02:45 PM
AcmeSalesRep AcmeSalesRep is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 25
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It depends on how you play. If you play one hand you will have an edge. If tou play more hands you will not.

[/ QUOTE ]

This clearly does not make sense. Each event is independent..either it is +EV or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

It clearly DOES make sense. You do not get the rebate on each individual bet...you get it on the net result during the period in question.

Scenario 1 -- 1 $200 bet -- EV is about +$6.00
Scenario 2 -- 2 $100 bets -- EV is about +$1.20
Scenario 3 -- 4 $50 bets -- EV is about -$.05

In all 3 cases, I have placed the same total bet -- $200. But the EV decreases as I break things into more bets of a smaller amount.

The loss rebate is only on the net loss at the end of the session. With just one bet, you have a reasonable chance of ending up with a net winning session. With many bets, you have very little chance of a net winning session.

If you are unlikely to have a net winning session, you will not have a +EV situation on a loss rebate. So for one bet, it is +EV...but for many bets, it is -EV.

Acme
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 11-27-2005, 03:12 PM
Jimbo Jimbo is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Planet Earth but relocating
Posts: 2,193
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...



[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 11-27-2005, 03:22 PM
Benholio Benholio is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 238
Default Re: 10% refund question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet your whole deposit on a single bet. Let's ignore the 3/2 payout for BJ and assume that I win 49% of the time (this MORE than accounts for the loss due to not being able to double or split)...



[/ QUOTE ]

Actually it doesn't, that is the problem with your calculation.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is not a big deal anyway. Bet half of your bankroll. Actually, I'm sure there is a spot between half and full bankroll that returns the highest EV, but none of this is really the point.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:27 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.