I'm all confused all of a sudden

[curtains]

btw I ran that scenario in eastbay's and according to that its a reasonably clear push with QTo in cutoff there against those calling standards.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

btw I ran that scenario in eastbay's and according to that its a reasonably clear push with QTo in cutoff there against those calling standards.

[/ QUOTE ]

?? I ran it in dethgrind's ICM calculator....hmmm

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

btw I ran that scenario in eastbay's and according to that its a reasonably clear push with QTo in cutoff there against those calling standards.

[/ QUOTE ]

EDIT: NEVER MIND, I HAD FAILED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT HOLDING QT MAKES IT LESS LIKELY YOUR OPPONENTS WILL HAVE AN AQ, AT, KQ, QQ, OR TT.

I just don't understand how you arrived at that result. I just ran the numbers again using dethgrind's ICM calculator.

If you fold, and it's folded to the BB (pretty much your worst-case folding scenario), your equity is

0.2504

If you push and win blinds, your 2600 stack will have an equity of

0.2941

If you push and beat BB, your 4200 stack "" ""

0.3902

If you push and beat SB, your 4400 stack "" ""

0.3971

If you push and beat button, your 4600 stack "" ""

0.4036

If you assume that the button, SB, and BB will call you with equal frequency, the three equity values average out to

0.397

So.

You fold, your equity is at least 0.2504

You push, your equity is

0.749*0.2941 +

0.251*0.33 [QTo win% against 66+, AT+, KQ] *0.397 =

= 0.2532

Yes, that's more than your equity if you fold...but that 0.2504 number was the worst-case scenario. If you fold, there may be a confrontation behind you, sharply increasing your equity.

[Blarg]

I can't imagine a game where at least one out of three people wouldn't have looser calling standards than that anyway.

[theredpill5]

Where are these calculators that you speak of ? What is eastbay's calculator and where do I find it ?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Where are these calculators that you speak of ? What is eastbay's calculator and where do I find it ?

[/ QUOTE ]

eastbay's tool

[shejk]

Sure, one might have looser calling standards, but say 99+, AQ+ is not at all unreasonable for quite a few opponents in this scenario.

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

Perhaps a useful question is, what are your (Blarg at the 11's, Scuba, Ilya, shejk etc. at your repsective levels) calling standards when on the bubble with evenish stacks.

KQ?
KJ?
44?

[shejk]

Gotta take many more variables into account, I was just making a point that these standards, in some situations against specific opponents will be loose.

Apart from the pusher's standards, I also consider game texture.

Are people to my right stealing a lot?
Is there someone at the table calling too much?
What's my estimated fold equity when I push?

Disclaimer: This is not a complete list.

[microbet]

I think if you fabricated a hand and posted it you would see that you want decent cards to push here. QT is probably a borderline case. 5 x BB makes you really anxious to push, but the fact that everyone has 5 x BB on the bubble makes you a little more cautious. Usually when you have 5 x BB on the bubble you are a short stack.