At Wits End

[allintuit]

Wow, I feel for you man, I experienced the same sort of terrible run over last November through January.

[MasterShakin]

Fair enough. I can't say that I'd be able to accomplish what you speak of, and although I can see more of what you are saying as true, I still don't see the whole picture. Nonetheless, it appears that you, at least, have found success in the S&Gs. My doubt to this point might best be explained by my lack of success (despite an absence of failure) at these games in the face of success in most other Hold'em games and a concommitant need to find a reason why... rather than find a way to succeed at the SnGs.

Thankyou, and I hope this has been a help to the thread starter.

keep it easy,
MShakin

[CaptSensible]

I dont use poker tracker. I use Poker Office. I like it a lot more than poker tracker. does all the same things but takes in the stats real time while you are playing. I don't have to import hand histories. Also tells you what the pot odds are. Anyhow, these are my sng stats gathered from poker office:

out of the last 500 games i've won 137 which is a win rate of 27.4%
ive come in 1st 30 times, 2nd 48 times, and 3rd 59 times.

to me a win rate of 27% doesn't look too bad on paper.
The ugly truth is it equals a loss of around 2800 dollars. Luckily I've offset that with placing in a live tourney for 400 bucks and did well at a 6/12 table for about 600 bucks.
the problem is coming in 3rd is lousy for your bankroll. If I came in third 50% of the time I'd have a win rate of 50% but I'd still be losing money. I mostly play the 30 sngs. 33 bucks to enter coming in 3rd the gross is 60 bucks but the net is $27. I could get ahead if I could move the amount of times iv'e come in 3rd to 2nd place.

Here are some more stats. These are from $30 sngs only:

my win rate is 28% (from 340 games)
1st place 19 times, 2nd place 40 times, 3rd place 39 times

out of 14,191 hands i've only won 14.75 percent of them.
my "saw flop" percentage is 21.15% if I see the flop I win 42.52% of the time. if i'm in a showdown, which is only 8.79% of the time I win it 51.68% of the time.

This info tells me I'm a pretty tight player that is just getting bad cards. Like I said before I don't play junk hands. I don't fish. I play premium hands most of the time. But I keep getting cracked by lesser hands. AA cracked by KK or 77, or rivered straight/flush etc etc...Not being able to crack 55 with AK etc etc...

I'd love feedback from you guys on what the stats tell YOU. Maybe the info i'm getting from them is incorrect. Please, Straighten me out, lol.
Thanks for all your feedback and help

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

out of the last 500 games i've won 137 which is a win rate of 27.4%
ive come in 1st 30 times, 2nd 48 times, and 3rd 59 times.


[/ QUOTE ]
Those are horrible stats.
Average would be 50-50-50.
Breaking even against the rake would be 55.5-55.5-55.5.
Solid winners may have stats that would look like 75-65-75 (ROI 31%).

[ QUOTE ]

to me a win rate of 27% doesn't look too bad on paper.
The ugly truth is it equals a loss of around 2800 dollars.


[/ QUOTE ]
Par is to cash 30%. To break even against the rake, you need to cash about 33%, if your cashes are equally distributed among wins, 2nds, and 3rds.

It is very rare for a winning player to lose even 1/3 as much. This downswing is not just variance. It strongly suggests you are not a winning player.

Why are you playing $30+3 SNGs instead of $10+1 SNGs? The $10+1 SNGs are easier, and cheaper while you learning to win.

[ QUOTE ]

This info tells me I'm a pretty tight player that is just getting bad cards.


[/ QUOTE ]
Are you under the misconception that tight=good?

You are probably playing far too tightly short-handed, and you are blinding down and getting run over.

[ QUOTE ]
I play premium hands most of the time. But I keep getting cracked by lesser hands.


[/ QUOTE ]
You are probably being beaten by your own chips. Do you pat yourself on the back when you get knocked out with the best hand? Don't. There is no reward for that, and you are getting the wrong feedback because you aren't stabbing yourself in the eye when you fold the best hand, or a hand you could have used to steal the blinds.

Once again, read the STT forum if you are interested in improving your play. I don't agree with all of the advice in that forum, but there are simple recipes for getting much better results than yours. You probably aren't being aggressive enough. Read the hands, and emulate some of the plays you see there.

[CaptSensible]

Ok, Good. This is the info Im looking for. At least, in a positive way it raises a lot of questions in regards to how I percieve my game. For the 2 months preceeding this last month of "bad runs" my win rate was over 30% and I was up and winning. You talk about being more aggressive in later stages. I'm assuming you mean try to steal more blinds or bluff out hands. While I try and do that based on the pattern of play from the beginning 2/3rds of the game isn't it still a huge crapshoot to try and steal the blinds with nothing? It's been very commmon for me to hit a lousy run of cards in the last 3rd of the game. I try and steal when I at least have playable cards which lately has been a large minority of the time. I definitely believe that not being aggresive enough IS a big gap in my game which i've tried to improve during this slump. When we're down to 3 or 4 people left I'll try and be aggressive with hands like 66, KT, A 7 or better. Sometimes it works often I find myself up against a better hand that wins or a coin flip that I lose. I will repost my "stat" post in the SnG forum and select a hand or two to post there per your advice.
I have no ego regarding poker and welcome the "you're playing losing poker" replies. At least so long as the criticism is constructive, lol.

Anyhow, thanks for the attn. to my posts. I really appreciate it!