Interesting No Limit Question - Page 18

cov47 · #**171** 10-08-2004, 01:46 PM

My other thought is, if he has the Jd, why did he bet 200? It's not enough to push the flush draw out, so he's not gaining anything in terms of creating a fold. If he waits for us to bet enough to push the draw out, then he can sensibly go all in and win whatever we bet. Knowing that, wouldn't he try to trap?

My head hurts, I think I'll stick to limit.

Bernas · #**172** 10-08-2004, 01:50 PM

Because he doesn't want to push the flush draw out.

Bernas · #**173** 10-08-2004, 01:52 PM

Why can't he have 2 pair and a flush draw? Only 2 of the 4 cards out are diamonds. He could have paired the other 2 with his diamonds.

Deorum · #**174** 10-08-2004, 01:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In the question posed by David, you are "almost sure" that the first guy has the straight, and the guy behind you a flush draw. So you're not worried if the board pairs. If a diamond hits, you check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who is to say that he does not have K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
on a board of A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? He
could have a diamond draw and a full house draw. Of
course this is unlikely, but it is possible.

Bernas · #**175** 10-08-2004, 02:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So if I raise here and the first player doesn´t have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which is likely, he will most probably only call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you consider likely? There is a 1 in 3 chance he has the J of diamonds.

cov47 · #**176** 10-08-2004, 02:39 PM

Ok, so one more attempt at a thought. Say we bet some amount X which doesn't cause the flush draw to fold. 1/3 of the time we will be reraised all in by the straight draw with the Jd, and we must fold, losing X chips. Assuming this doesn't happen (2/3 of the time), about 8/42 of the time (I guess it could be 7/42 or 9/42), the third diamond comes on the river and again we must fold losing X chips. It looks like the worst case is losing X chips about half the time.

In situations where we bet X, and both other players call, the pot now has 900 + 3X chips in it. We split with the other straight and get 450 + 1.5X chips. We paid X to do this so our gain is 450 + .5X in the pots we win (about half). We want this to be greater than the loss of X the other half the time. So we have to bet less than 900, but leave the flush draw with some kind of appealing odds. But it seems like the less we bet the better off we are. The minimum raise of 200 (X = 400) gives us 650 half the time and a loss of 400 half the time.

If we call, we pay 200 but eliminate the possibility of losing to Jd. About 8/42 of the time we lose 200, and the rest of the time we win 550. This beats raising. And it beats folding.

KC50 · #**177** 10-08-2004, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Read the original post again.

You know the guy behind you has a flush draw NOT THE FLUSH DRAW PLUS THE MADE STRAIGHT and you know the first guy has the made straight (who gives a flying f___ if he has the naked Jd).

You can destroy the odds of the flush draw by reopening the betting and implicitly colluding with the first guy to push.

Squirrel has posted 20 times on this thread while not carefully reading the original scenerio.

[/ QUOTE ]

......"UNLESS" the flush draw does have the Jd. So I would give a flying f___ in that case.

KC

Wayfare · #**178** 10-08-2004, 02:40 PM

Squirrel, you sleep at 1:30 in the afternoon?

I sure hope you are right for your sake.

tdomeski · #**179** 10-08-2004, 02:56 PM

Calling is the correct play. .David will explain why. .it's more or less intuitively obvious if you are familiar with tournament poker.

RowdyZ · #**180** 10-08-2004, 03:03 PM

Geez isn't that hard. Calling might be okay folding is probably best and easiest. You have 10K in chips. There is 900 in Chips in the pot. If you fold and the flush draw calls. there will now be 1100 in the pot if the flush comes on the river the straight will check and fold to a bet from the flush, if you had stayed in you would have lost an extra 200. If the flush doesn't come and the flush will fold to a bet from the straight. you lost a chance at half of 1300 pot, 650, or really only 450 since you put another 200 in. It doesn't matter what other bets might have been placed you would be risking a bunch of chips for at best half equity in a pot. Why build it into a huge pot when at best you can win a small amount of money and worst lose alot or all.