Hand to Talk About

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]

If I was in a $15-$30 game at The Bellagio I would certainly agree with you. Or perhaps if it was tournament time and there were a bunch of European pot limit players sitting at my table. However in general, the typical unknown (to me) $80-$160 player at The Bellagio does play better than this. Perhaps in some other places this is not the case. But I hardly get out of the house anymore, less go to those other places.

Best wishes,
Mason

[/ QUOTE ]



This is the key element to this post, other than the player is playing against Mason and therefore knows he's against a far better than average caliber of player. That element is the level (80/160) which is a level of play I'd say less than 10% of this board plays at (and it's probably more like 1% of this site, in reality).

Me, personally, in any 10/20 game or even 20/40 game, I'd either raise the turn or the river and I know I'd still get called by a guy with a holding as weak as KJ -- in fact, something almost like this happened last night where I bet top pair, the top card paired, and the guy still called me down with THIRD pair.

There is a group of horrendous players out there that many of us are used to playing with -- but they are probably NOT playing 80/160 at the Bellagio and if they are, they aren't playing that game for long (barring some random fortune that they inherited).

With all of that said, you are absolutely right, Mason, that raising the turn with these types of players is incorrect. However ... do you think you ONLY get called with a river raise to a hand that beats you? Or were you laying seeds for further confusion when you call or raise as people have just seen you call down with AK on an AA-XXX board?


Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
one thing is for certain. Only a few of you knew to think back to how the hand was played on all streets and how the play on these streets, especially the flop, would influence the likely distribution of the hands that my opponent would hold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this at all. As a matter of fact, the only way to put your opponent on a range of hands was to look back at the play on the flop. With 2 Aces out there why wouldn't Ace-x not bet the turn when he thinks he may not get a bet out of you? Why wouldn't he bet a J or some other big pair on the turn now that he could account for two Aces? Why wouldn't he bet the river for value with a big pair and call a raise or bet the Ace and either call or re-raise? All of these hands you beat are consistant with his flop play.

I think you may have lost more than one extra bet here which in my opinion swings it from a close raise to an absolute must. The range of hands you beat is larger than the range that has you beaten, as is the range of hands he's re-raising with. After a few years the better posters on this board beat it into me not to fear monsters and get some value out of my hands. I think you fell victim to your own overthinking.

[kagame]

basically seems clear to me also that the opponent thought there was a good chance he was beat UNTIL he saw the 2nd ace hit.

thats what makes his play bizarre, he reevaluates his hand strength in the upward direction. yet, it makes little sense, its as though someone with AA put his opponent on KK until a K hits the flop, and then decides he couldnt have KK, do you see what i mean?

i think that anyone who could put this opponent on that sort of mental process instead of what Mason discusses either has ESP or is suffering from delusions.

[That guy]

at 80/160, is it normal for the BB to call a TAG EP raise with a caller already in?? What do you want to flop?? Ten high? and hope Mason has AK and the caller has 99??

vs 1 EP raiser, mediocre... vs EP raiser and a call, eww.

[Gamblor]

I'd prefer that most opponents value bet me less, since I'm much more likely to have marginal hands than monsters on the river.

The point of my post was that Mason didn't raise with a great but not "monstrous" holding on the river.

Thus, he can represent monsters later on by raising the river in another pot, knowing that the Villain here would have to give serious respect to any sort of river raise, regardless of whether Mason actually has it.

Having never played the 80 game at the Bellagio, that's my blind defence.

[mplspoker]

James, for what it is worth I think what you said - is totally true and has to be said. I'm a business owner (not a professional poker player), but if I was concerned about making all of my money playing poker this hand was clearly played wrong. I don't play any higher than 30/60 (maybe 80/160 is totally different) but for 99.9% of the people reading this forum that generally play 30/60 and lower it's a complete joke.

I would also like to know why the raise on the turn is so bad? What if he has ace rag or a pocket pair - do you just want to let him catch up? What if he has 2 broadways and ends up catching a str8 on the river? It seems a little rediculous to let him catch up or at least not raise the river here.....

Mason is assume on the turn that either he has a full house or nothing that can even catch up. I'd doubt that is the case, I'd guess it is likely something that can catch up....

[skp]

Bingo bango.

One has to play with one's nose as much as one's head when playing poker. We have all encountered this situation (or a close variation thereof) dozens of times. A checkcall on the flop coupled with a bet on the turn rarely represents a monster that is looking to get excessive action.

One can easily drum up reasons as to why calling is better on the river but the smell test says raise and that is usually the most reliable sign.

[Philuva]

Perfect. And I don't think Mason's opponent misplayed the hand at all. In fact, with Mason not raising the river, he played it perfectly.

[Robb]

Hi Mason,
You wrote:
[ QUOTE ]
What's interesting here is that this is an example of a play a very good player might make as well as a very bad player when they hold a very strong hand. An okay player would probably go for the check raise on the turn with the same hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the first thing I would think against a great player. He filled up and wants me to raise the turn or he has nothing and probably won't call a raise. However, I feel you aren't accounting for:
A great player may also lead bet the turn with merely trip aces for the same reason.

Yes trips are different than a boat because he may not want to 3-bet your raise. But against you....a lead bet is better than a turn cr because but he gets out of the turn for 2 bets vs 3 if he's beat. (Now if you would raise the turn with KK/QQ than that's a different story. But it still doesn't hurt him because the turn lead bet still got money in the pot with the best hand.)

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop he had something to defend with. Maybe a mediocre/strong-ish Ace like A8-AJ. Maybe a suited Ace. (And maybe a pocket pair or some face cards. These fall under the bluff or maybe keep you honest category at the end)

On the flop, he hits an Ace. No, he doesn't bet or check-raise. He just check-calls because a tough player has raised. So you could easily have a big Ace - and you could get away from a worse hand. So, he thinks maybe he is ahead, maybe not, but he's calling you down.

Now, there's another Ace on the turn. OK, now it becomes less likely that you have an Ace. And if you have a pocket pair, you may well check behind. So, let's bet out. If you do indeed have a bigger Ace, you'll raise, and he'll call you down to make sure. But since his three Aces are probably good, he definitely wants to get at least one bet in here.

OK, you don't raise the turn. You surely don't have a big Ace. Probably KK or QQ. And a good chance you'll check those behind, so better go ahead and value bet the river rather than go for a checkraise that will often miss - and get three-bet if indeed you were being tricky with a big Ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

This pretty much what I thought. Of course, he could have flopped a very strong hand, and now that an A is less likely for Mason on the turn, he bets. The only hands that would do this are JJ, 22, and AJ. (There are three each of these.)

If the guy plays say AKo-ATo and any suited A, and Mason will call a 3-bet on the river, raising the river would be +.125BB for Mason. However, his opponent may not 3-bet 22, because he may be afraid Mason slow played AJ, JJ, or AA. (It would be incorrect for him to 3-bet with 22.) In fact he may not 3-bet even JJ on the river, as tight as Mason plays.

More over, his opponent may play off-suit A’s worse than AT. The guy may have been somewhat inclined to still go for the C/R on the turn with 22 or JJ, even though an A was now less likely for Mason, and therefore we can consider 22 and JJ are not quite as likely. In addition there is a chance that the guy is value betting KJ when he sees the 2nd A.

However, if Mason is going to argue that the guy would not play any off suit A worse than AT, no suited A worse than A7s, and that he will fold anything worse than trip A’s on the river, then just calling the river is good.