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#151
10-08-2004, 01:01 PM
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Re: Sticking to my guns
My question is this:
Can the Jd make a raise of a specific size that makes both calling the bet and calling the raise correct as separate events, but incorrect cumulatively? Taking into account the disaster of folding to a raise from the bare Jd, which you have just now folded in a pot you can't lose. That's where I get to lazy to do the math and just fold. 
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#152
10-08-2004, 01:06 PM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
Your odds that he has another diamond are based on random card distribution and don't take into account the fact that he would be much more likely to play a suited hand that contains a jack than random card distribution would indicate.
This is like saying that before the flop if you raise, someone reraises, you reraise, and he reraises there is a 1 in 221 chance he has Aces. uh....no.
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#154
10-08-2004, 01:08 PM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
Are our opponents as good at reading our hand as we are reading theirs? Do we assume that the guy who just bet 200 knows that we don't have 2 diamonds? Unless he happens to have Ad Jd, he can't be positive he isn't capable of losing to a higher flush, be it in our hand or in the "flush draw" hand. So I think he'd need more than the naked Jd to push with total confidence after a river diamond, even if we force the flush draw out.
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#155
10-08-2004, 01:12 PM
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Re: and.....
Hi Squirrel -
I don't agree that folding to an all-in reraise by the bare Jd is at all a catastophe, or even a mistake. The potential gain is very small when we do not fold, because we are splitting the pot at least two ways. The potential loss when we do not fold is infinite in terms of our tournament livelihood. In a cash game, sure, we can't fold when we are reraised. But we like to avoid these situations in tournament play. Regarding a smaller reraise, realize that if we make a $700 raise and get reraised behind us, the best we could be getting to call is 4.5 - 1. Given the strong likelihood of being in freeroll land in that case, that is really not enough to call, especially given our tournament risk aversion. Now of course we can avoid these particular close gambles altogether by simply folding when bet into, and I think this is obviously a much better option than making a big raise or calling. And I would almost always just fold in a cash game, because, in that case, I think your point about a reraise putting you in a very bad spot is absolutely correct. The reason I answered as I did was because I do not beleive the spot is that bad precisely because we are in a tournament and the stacks are still so small. So, I choose to try to protect my hand just in case the Jd is not out there, or even better, in case my reads are incorrect. So, were you thinking strictly in terms of expectation and not considering the tournament effect, or am I still missing your argument, or is my interpretation of how the tournament affects our decisions incorrect? Good Luck Cepstrum
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#156
10-08-2004, 01:13 PM
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Re: I now have....
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
Okay. We're in the "Raise is for flippin idiots Camp" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] most assuredly
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#157
10-08-2004, 01:14 PM
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ANOTHER SITUATION
No one has the Jd.
You call, button calls. River: diamond, or board pairs. Now what? Now you have to determine the frequency in which each player will bluff, and decide whether or not to call off more chips. Good god, just fold.
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#158
10-08-2004, 01:17 PM
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Re: Let me clarify something.
If you're going to fold to a raise which could easily be made by the bare Jd, or call a raise by Jdxd because of "current" pot odds yet are getting freerolled, yes a call can be wrong.
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