30-60 Hand

[Bartholow]

Paluka and I actually discussed this elsewhere. He stuck to his guns but I'm pretty convinced that just betting the ace is the way to go. Aces up isn't really that likely, relative to a bunch of other hands. While you will sometimes induce a bluff, I think more often your opponent will be scared into checking behind. I also find that my opponents generally don't fold on the "if I wasn't beat before I must be now" principal as much as they probably should here, certainly not as much as I would think. So I think betting the ace for value is the straightforward play. If you do check and your opponent bets, I would at least sometimes raise, especially in live games any time I thought I had any sort of read.

[adios]

Good hand. My thinking was that when you call the turn here I’d be considering what would you do that with. Working backwards you know that your opponent knows that you’d raise with a wide range of hands thus you know that 3 betting with a decent hand like AQo is a good play. Therefore you have a pretty good idea that the chances of your opponent having over cards vs. an over pair is fairly high. Therefore trying to blow your opponent off of high cards would be highly possible if you had a poor hand yourself on the turn. So I’d start by putting you on a hand of some value here at least. The other thing to consider is that pre-flop you didn’t make it 4 bets so it would indicate that you’re sandbagging a big pair or your hand is somewhat marginal after he three bets but is ok in a heads up pot. If you had a pair, is the raise the turn-check the river play right? Yeah I think so especially if it will slow your opponent down if he has you beat. But you smooth called the turn so I’m thinking you have him beat pretty bad in this spot. A set of T’s? Possible but I think you may 4 bet that hand pre-flop. A set of 3’s? Yep could be. Quad 5’s well yeah maybe. KK yep could be that too.

So with your particular hand I would have thought you'd raise the turn here to get two bets (you've got to call two anyway) in as a scary is higly possible on the river. If your opponent folds a worse hand (especiall two overcards), it's not that bad. If your opponent will slow down often with a better hand than yours on the turn then I think this play is effective.

Next hand.

[mike l.]

"I talked with Coilean tonight at the Shoe and we agreed you are welcome to try and beat us with your constant barrage of checking."

ill do you one better, how about a constant barrage of table changing.