Interesting No Limit Question

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, if someone does have the Jd, he can and should make a sizable raise if given the opportunity, but that is why you just call (you don't want the guy with the straight to make this play). If the flush draw also happens to have a straight (aka Jd Xd) then you are in a tought spot, but this isn't going to be a factor the majority of the time. If it gets raises you have to consider the pot sizes when making the call, but folding just becasue somebody *might* be freerolling you is silly when you only need to call a small bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what I have been advocating all along.

[West]

You'd only be getting horrible reverse implied odds if you are going to call when a diamond hits the river.

Sure, if the guy who you put on a flush draw behind you has the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as part of his draw, he can raise...but if he doesn't, he's not going to....you make a great point about the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but there is no way you fold to the $200 bet that is to you.

[aces961]

[ QUOTE ]
It never stated he didn't have a straight draw.

You put player 3 on the flush because of his FLOP action.

You put player 1 on the straight because of his TURN action.

There's more to this hand than you guys are reading into.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, so I'll redo my calculations with the following provisions the two alternatives are fold to the bet of 200. or to call the 200 and then either fold if the third player raises any amount (this may not be correct to do, but I'll do it anyway and still show this is better than folding without calling the 200) or fold on the river if the flush hits.

The fold has an ev of zero. Now you assuming the third player will raise with the jd in his hand and simply call with any other diamonds. The two outcomes are either lose 200 chips or win 550 chips for the ev of this situation to be negative you have to lose 200 chips over 73.3333.... percent of the time. I'll let you decide if you think this will happen.

[Squirrel]

One of the best and most well respected tournament players in the FOLD CAMP.

Stay strong brother!

[Ezcheeze]

you are getting 5.5 to 1 immediate odds (probably more when the flush draw calls). If the flush doesn't come on the river (and your read isn't so far off that someone might fill up) then you split. Given these odds folding can't be right.

-Ezcheeze

[Squirrel]

Yeah, I was laughing typing it. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Boris]

Call

[Squirrel]

This is where I think calling could be proven slightly correct.

The problem as I have stated is if the button raises an ammount you HAVE to call, yet are still being freerolled. Or, he can just blow you out of the water by raising with the bare Jd.

Or, if you call, button calls, and board pairs. now what?

You are in a horrible spot.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
One of the best and most well respected tournament players in the FOLD CAMP.

Stay strong brother!

[/ QUOTE ]


haha.. i wouldn't call myself that.


actually, i am in the fold/call camp. i only entertain the notion that call is possibly correct because the bet is so small, and someone might actually crunch all the probabilities with the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and such, to prove that calling is slightly +EV.

[CrisBrown]

Hi David,

I like B (call) here. I don't want to fold because, a great majority of the time, I'm folding what will have been the nut hand and I would chop the pot. But because I'm figuring to chop this, I don't want to put any more money in than is absolutely necessary. (I gain no additional equity by increasing the size of a chopped pot.)

Even if I do get the flush draw behind me to fold with a raise, what am I going to do if the first player now pushes in? If he's on JdXd (about 16:1 against, see below), he's freerolling and I could lose my entire stack. I'd almost have to call, as the odds that he is freerolling and will hit his flush are about 86:1 against (see below). So 86 times out of 87, I make money by calling his all-in (that is, I chop the pot) ... but I make no more than I would have if I had simply called rather than raised. That other time, I lose my entire stack. To me, the increased made equity that I gain by chasing out a flush draw is more than offset by the negative equity if I am forced to play this hand for all my chips.

So, I call.

Note: It's 16:1 against my opponent having JdXd. If he has a made straight, there's a 1/3 chance he has Jd. There are two diamonds on board, and I'm reading two diamonds in the hand of the player yet to act behind me. There are 45 cards unknown (2 in my hand, 4 on board, plus Jd), and 8 diamonds unaccounted for, meaning he has another diamond 1-in-5.625 times, for a 1-in-16.85 shot that he has JdXd, or about 16:1 against. If he does have JdXd, then there are 7 diamonds left in the deck with 45 cards unseen, for a 1-in-6.42 (or roughly 1:5) chance that he will hit his flush. Thus, the odds that he both has JdXd and hits his flush are 86:1 against.

Cris