Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[KramerTM]

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This remember me of Annie Duke and the play with KQ called by "an amateur" with AQ. She then go on to berate the amateur because of his donkish play. For some pros an amateur should fold every time they make their "great plays" in order to deserve not to be called a donkey.

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When did this happen? As I recall it, this was the hand that she was eliminated with in the 2004 WSOP ME. I don't remember there being any berating whatsoever after she was eliminated. The only berating came when Brett Jungblut (sp?) threw his hand to the muck before Annie had a chance to see it. Someone feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

[KramerTM]

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My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.

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Don't turn into Hellmuth on us. You made the right play and you were crippled. It stings...but you know damn well there is no way you should be passing on situations with significant positive chip equity this early in a tournament. Replace "significant" with "minimal" and you might have an argument for folding.

Will

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I really think this play was a lot more marginal than you imply.

[SossMan]

deeped stacked as they were, and w/ ZJ's current image, I think that the call w/ J9s is fine. Of course, i'm not going to argue someone out of folding it, either. just that the conditions seemed fine for it.

My analysis of the 2nd raise was that his plays didn't correlate. If he thought that they were both full of it when after a raise and a push, then he must have thought that they were weak to begin with, so why wouldn't he have made the raise himself to put them to the tough decision.

Also, both AQ and AK and of course medium pairs up to JJ are all in ZJ's range preflop. You probably should discount AK somewhat because he didn't reraise preflop, but my default play in that spot w/ AK is to flat call in position w/ stacks that deep and proceed w/ caution. After all the hubabaloo w/ the mistaken raise, AK/AQ is certainly pushing there.

[SossMan]

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My overall analysis of this play:
My read on how willing MP1 was to put his tournament life at stake was clearly off.
Given my reads however (that were otherwise correct), I think this play has a significant positive chip equity.
Despite that, there is just too much risk of me going broke during this hand, and I should have given up this edge to avoid missing out on bigger edges later on.

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Don't turn into Hellmuth on us. You made the right play and you were crippled. It stings...but you know damn well there is no way you should be passing on situations with significant positive chip equity this early in a tournament. Replace "significant" with "minimal" and you might have an argument for folding.

Will

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I really think this play was a lot more marginal than you imply.

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ZJ:
"I think this play has a significant positive chip equity."

[KramerTM]

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ZJ:
"I think this play has a significant positive chip equity."

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You spelled God wrong.

[sirio11]

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If he thought that they were both full of it when after a raise and a push, then he must have thought that they were weak to begin with, so why wouldn't he have made the raise himself to put them to the tough decision.

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Maybe he realized they were full of it, after ZJ went all in.

[Ulysses]

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If he thought that they were both full of it when after a raise and a push, then he must have thought that they were weak to begin with, so why wouldn't he have made the raise himself to put them to the tough decision.

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Maybe he realized they were full of it, after ZJ went all in.

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Ding. Now, this could just be a bonehead play on his part. But there have definitely been times where I've intended to fold to something like a bet and a call, then there's a bet and push that just makes no sense to me and I end up calling because I don't believe the guy at all and I have little fear of an overcall. This usually turns out to be the correct decision.

[SossMan]

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ZJ:
"I think this play has a significant positive chip equity."

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You spelled God wrong.

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I love the internet.

Will had a problem w/ ZJ saying: I had significant positive chip equity, but I should have still folded.

You said: I think you (will) underestimate how marginal the play is.

I quoted ZJ to indicate that Will wasn't analyzing the ev'ness of the play.

sh!t, nevermind, this is stupid.

[tdomeski]

1) I really enjoy your webiste.

As for the hand. . I think by folding here you are passing up on what is seemingly a very +EV situation. However this is one of those +EV situations where you need to pass b/c when you happen to lose this hand you lose out on all of the +EV situations to come in the tournament. I would assume you consider yourself one of if not the best players at your table, thus the opportunities to acquire just as many chips can be achieved throughout the tournament with much less risk. I haven't played in the Aruba tournament but I assume it's structure is much like other WPT events (slow blind levels, deeper stacks, etc.)? If this is true you are in no rush.

Another thing when considering your choices here is how likely is MP3 to call you with a hand like AK or 88? If he's likely to take a flip for a lot of chips this early in the tournament then I would probably lay down. While your hand is failry representative of one of those types of hands, his is too.

Hope it worked out.

tdomeski

[DCJ311]

First of all, I don't believe your fold equity is as high as you think. Unless you're about 100% sure that the re-raiser in the SB is going to fold, it seems like a -EV play. Even still, you have to hope that the re-reraiser has only a small/medium pair or AKo/AQo type hands, which is a reasonable range for him to have, based on how he's played the hand. If you do put him on these ranges of hands, I think it is very unlikely that he is going to fold to your re-raise over the top, after he's put in 2,000. If he has the 'gambool' mentality, no way does he fold here unless he's making a ridiculous bluff.

Another reason to fold is that you're representing a pretty weak hand after you've cold called a raiser and 2 callers in front of you. After your action you're looking at a guy who re-raised preflop, and another guy who has re-re-raised preflop. This is not a good subset where fold equity is going to be high, especially against weak, calling station type players. I mean, how many times in tournaments do you see this type of action where both of the players end up folding to the allin? Not often in my experience.

I just think that ZJ is good enough to build up a stack without having to wade through a GIANT minefield here, and later on he can get players to call off chips post-flop with the worst hand. You've got what looks to be like a nice table draw, with significant amounts of preflop raising. At this type of table I'd be eager to be more patient and try to trap opponents with huge hands later on, rather than trying to make highly risky plays.