Week #2 lines for "3+1 Challenge- 2005" - Page 13

Easy E · #**121** 09-16-2005, 10:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Penalize as you will.

400 - Flacons

[/ QUOTE ]

I should penalize you for the spelling.. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Premium Hands · #**122** 09-16-2005, 11:14 PM

400 Ravens
300 Bengals
200 Cardinals over 44
100 Bengals under 47

homedog · #**123** 09-17-2005, 12:51 AM

$400 BENGALS -3 Vikings
$300 TEXANS + 6 Steelers
$200 OVER 36.5 Redskins/Cowboys
$100 OVER 44 Rams/Cardinals

#**124** 09-17-2005, 01:17 AM

$400 Browns
$300 Bears
$200 Eagles u43
$100 Broncos o44

NoChance · #**125** 09-17-2005, 03:09 AM

$400 Buccaneers -2.5
$300 Jets -6
$200 Seahawks -1
$100 Broncos -3

DougOzzzz · #**126** 09-17-2005, 04:33 AM

400 - Raiders
300 - Panthers
200 - Broncos
100 - Bears

Reasoning - Their opponents had totals of 7800, 7800, 6300, and 6600 bet on them for a total of 28500. These teams had only 1300, 1400, 1400, and 1800 bet on them for a total of 5900 making the difference 22600 in the opponents favor.

If these 4 teams win - I don't win 1000, I win 1200 compared to the average person in this contest.

I also lose 1200 if they all lose, but there are so many people in this contest that increasing my variance even at a small loss of expectation should increase my chances of winning. Especially when I'm at -400 now.

Easy E · #**127** 09-17-2005, 08:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Reasoning - Their opponents had totals of 7800, 7800, 6300, and 6600 bet on them

If these 4 teams win - I don't win 1000, I win 1200 compared to the average person in this contest.

I also lose 1200 if they all lose, but there are so many people in this contest that increasing my variance even at a small loss of expectation should increase my chances of winning. Especially when I'm at -400 now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting theory, fading 2+2. Well, if it's going to work, the early weeks are the ones to do it in. However, as I posted in the results thread, you're fading a group that last year made money overall.

Additionally, the eventual 2004 winner was -$400 the first week. It's a little early yet to look at counter-strategies, I think.

One other counter-point. I learned my lesson on fading the Pats last year. Until they show me that their changes have strongly affected them, I won't be doing it this year myself.

#**128** 09-17-2005, 08:38 AM

400 Jets -6
300 Packers -7
200 Bills + 2 1/2
100 Rams +1

MHoydilla · #**129** 09-17-2005, 09:15 AM

I got:

400 Under 34 Det/Chi
300 Over 44 StL/Ari
200 Over 44 Den/SD
100 Giants - 3

BadBoyBenny · #**130** 09-17-2005, 09:25 AM

400 Chiefs
300 Steelers
200 Chargers
100 Rams