american idol *lock*

[GrannyMae]

Ive never bet these before. Does the market basically not move till the next show now?

this is an early market, so there will be some movement that is driven *solely* by market activity and not by substance. if someone makes a big buy, the shares will rise but probably level off. as it gets deep into the season, there is very little movement 12 hours after the results show until the next week.

with the current format, next monday the price on most males will rise. then on tuesday, the female prices will go up and put the males back where they were.

on the day of the results show, there will be inexplicable movement due to rumors and due to people with big positions making trades.

when it is down to final 12 and there is only one performance show and one results show, there will be little or no movement (short of a contestant being arrested) between 12 hours after the results show and 5 minutes into the following weeks performance show.

to answer the earlier question, abslolutely there are trades to be made as the show is on air. in season 2, we knew who to buy and sell due to where they were placed on the couch during the results show. they got smart on that and plays like this became uncommon (though there still are a few). the couch position play in season 2 netted me $500 easy.

there is one play that has been consistent and they did not seem to adjust for it this week. the play is that the last performer is likely to be an amazing performance (the producers watch rehersals all week and know who is gonna kick ass each week). so, when the second to last contestants name is announced, the play is to buy the contestant that sings last. there will upward movement in that contestant and most times can be dumped 30 minutes later with a 5 point gain. this play MUST be dumped 30 minutes later because that artifical push will evaporate later that night and the next day.

they are so aware of these things that tip the dramatic hat, that they had seacrest do the most f'd up method to eliminate last night. i will say tho that the look on melinda's face last night was the most extreme reaction i have ever seen. very sad but oddly funny. it is as if she was angry at ryan for divulging the way he did. he totally blindsided her and she had no clue it was coming. priceless

[scott8]

So, what should you do if you are on the West Coast?
Completely scrap the idea of trading during the show on the east coast because even if you get info it will be too late?
Or is there decent info out there, like chat rooms or message boards that I should be reading?
Thanks in advance.
-SC

[revots33]

Pretty sure that is the "money line" - in other words how much you'd win if you bet $100 on the person to win. It's more for comparison purposes than anything else I think. For example if the buy price is 10, the money line would be +900 - if you bought 10 contracts you'd win 90 on each, or a 900 profit.

[GrannyMae]

west coast is distinct disadvatage if you are going to trade during show. only active day trader i know on west coast gets an east coast satellite feed or refreshes the page constantly here

http://forums.prospero.com/foxidol/m...ading+>>

[astroglide]

pretty interesting action. federov back on the rise, bo on the rise, nadia coming up strong.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
federov back on the rise

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe the masses arent with me but every time I see him I want to wedgie him. Every time I hear him I wanna puke

[rusty JEDI]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, the fact that they didn't vote that fat retard off the show last night shocked me.

lol, while i would not classify him that strongly, i would think he was pretty close to bottom 2. he needs to pull off a HUGE performance this week to survive. i was surprised to see him stay but there are so many contestants that it is easy for things like this to happen until it gets down to 12.

[/ QUOTE ]



Along these lines and the lines of those who hate Micalah. I feel both of these two will make the top 12. The reason being that this is a competition where you vote for who you like. It is not a competition where you vote for who should be gone. This keeps around a lot of weaker people who have a group of niche voters, or those who think its funny to vote for the fat ugly guy.

It will have to get down to less competitors before the above effect can be countered. For now we will continually see those get kicked off who are forgettable, or those who noone neither loves nor hates.

rJ

[RollaJ]

Nadia moves into fourth, 7 bid offered at 10

[astroglide]

i'm wishing i had more than 10 on nadia (priced in at 5.8 per). got 20 carries at 8.3 per though [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[RollaJ]

Y'all gotta remind me to vote earlier next season...... I liked Robinson from the first time I heard him