Does he have a pocket pair often enough here?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a guy w/30/20 stats is reraising PPs TT-AA as well as, AK, or KQ. I also doubt he defends w/lower than K9o but I could be wrong

Board: Ks 2h 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.0756 % 50.87% 00.21% { TT }
Hand 2: 48.9244 % 48.72% 00.21% { 99-33, KJs-K6s, KJo-K9o }

Since we may actually be ahead often enough to make this a coin flip, calling down makes a ton of sense.

If we expand the hand ranges to include more Kx, we get this

Board: Ks 2h 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.9552 % 37.80% 00.16% { TT }
Hand 2: 62.0448 % 61.89% 00.16% { 99-33, KJs-K3s, KJo-K6o }

By calling down we put in 5 sbs to win 15. We are essentially getting 3:1 on a 2:1 shot. Even then calling down is superior to folding

[/ QUOTE ]

Speaking from the perspective of a 30/20 player, I don't think he 3-bets KQ after a raise from a SB and two limpers.

You also gave him a full range of PP's to be raising the flop, which is something I disagree with in our equity analysis.

Rob

[Drontier]

to satisfy as many peoples wishes I edited the range in pokerstove to be 99-66, every suited deuce, K2s-KQs, K9o-KQo, and the random as hell ATs. We have a 28.006% equity in this case. We are paying 5 to call down 15, we only need 25%. Plus, if we hit a ten we have an additional few implied points. If we remove the one combo every so random ATs, we have 27.001% equity. Still good right?

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
You also gave him a full range of PP's to be raising the flop, which is something I disagree with in our equity analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Entity,

If he's smart (or just blindly aggressive) enough to be raising 77 then he should be raising 33-66, too, since they perform nearly identically vs hero's expected range, which is either an overpair or overcards to our pair. Villain will not be expecting our hero to raise hands like A6 which 77 is far ahead of while 55 is not.

We should think about what villain thinks of our holding. Does he think us aggressive enough that we'll be unpaired here often? If so then we need to include all the PPs. If he figures us to only raise really premuim hands (AJ+ TT+ KQ+) then we should be folding.

Something to think about.

Surf

[me454555]

Villain should be raising the full range of PPs to protect his hand further in case he believe hero will auto bet this flop w/hans like AQ, AJ. Villain should also raise if he believes there is a chance that hero will fold a bigger pp like 66-TT. On top of that, adding in KQ to villains hands doesn't drastically change our equity enough to turn this from a call to a fold

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]

If he's smart (or just blindly aggressive) enough to be raising 77 then he should be raising 33-66, too,

[/ QUOTE ]

He does have the rest of the field (only 2 limpers, I know) to be concerned with. The reason I think that those hands are being weighted too heavily is that he hasn't shown himself to be particularly aggressive (1.5), but we do need to set a cutoff for some range of hands, if only to give a certain amount of "bluff" equity to his hand range. Saying that he has 33-99 that he might 'value bluffraise' with seems too wide, but I don't think 77-99 is that horrible of a range to give him.

Rob

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain should be raising the full range of PPs to protect his hand further in case he believe hero will auto bet this flop w/hans like AQ, AJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain should not necessarily be raising the full range of PP's here; in addition -- and this is much more important -- we're not dealing with what villain should do. His stats don't indicate a player who is playing his hands, at quite an optimum level. We're trying to speculate backwards from a small sample of what he's likely to do, and I don't think a person with these stats (30/20/1.5) is likely to be raising 33-99 on this flop.

Rob

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you two are gonna play 5/10 HU $250 freezeout you should both transfer $250 to a trusted third party, and then play .02/.04 HU $1 freezeout on Stars. You will save a tonne in rake.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like a super good idea to me [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]dude, you must really be runniong bad to go out of your way to play this idiot for $200! WTF?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah its pretty much gotten that bad...

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
See I wouldn't think most 30/20s would raise Ax here. I never would with 2 people to act behind me and a solid guy who raised from sb. I also think a lot would fold a lower pocket pair to the flop bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this, as a 30/20/2.2 myself i would never raise this flop with the smaller pocket pairs or Ax. i don't think the suited deuces need to be discounted so much but the small PP's or ace high should be heavily discounted if not completely ignored.

[me454555]

Seems like its strait out of SSH for me. Pot is big and anyonne w/a pp, even a small one will want to protect their equity. They might be able to fold a higher PP and may actually be ahead

[tolbiny]

"By calling down we put in 5 sbs to win 15. We are essentially getting 3:1 on a 2:1 shot. Even then calling down is superior to folding"

I don't think its quite that neat as the opponent is more likely to check behind on the river with hands that you beat and will nearly always bet when you are behind.