Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

[RaiNz]

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How about this for a real risk of ruin, not a hypothetical one where you might be able to get staked, etc: You have AsAc on a board of AhAd10d Your opponent holds Jd2h, and his cards have been exposed. He moves all in for 250 million dollars, but you don't have it. You can call him, but the guaranty that you must put up is your life. If you win the hand, you win 250 million dollars. If you lose, you die. Do you call the bet?

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Without even blinking.

[augie00]

Paul Phillips made a great post about this subject. I think it's in the archives somewhere.

[captZEEbo1]

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This has been discussed before, but for the people saying yes, would you do this: You are offered the choice between taking a gift of 50 million dollars, or a 75 percent chance of winning 250 million dollars. Which do you take?

How about this for a real risk of ruin, not a hypothetical one where you might be able to get staked, etc: You have AsAc on a board of AhAd10d Your opponent holds Jd2h, and his cards have been exposed. He moves all in for 250 million dollars, but you don't have it. You can call him, but the guaranty that you must put up is your life. If you win the hand, you win 250 million dollars. If you lose, you die. Do you call the bet?

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I call this 250 million/ death proposition. People make similar propositions daily but with MUCH less reward. I'll go rock climbing, there's a .00001% I die, but a 99.9999% chance I'll have a fun day. Maybe exact odds aren't right, but this kind of scenario (crossing a busy street, driving a car in a bad neighborhood, driving drunk, flying in a plane, swimming in a pool while it's raining/storming).

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Good point. Where's your tolerance limit though? Would you call a 250 million/death bet with a 99 percent chance of winning? 95? 75? Where is the line? Just curious.

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Extra money won't really make me happier at all, I guess. That being said, I'm a gambling man and 99.95% would probably be enough though. 75% would be a joke of a line, you'd REALLY need to seek counseling if your priorities are that out of whack.

P.S. I'd really appreciate a link to the paul phillips journal if you could find it.

[Stephen Gray]

exactly.

[MicroBob]

I truly did think we were talking about net-worth here.

If I can just call $10k my 'poker-bankroll' and the $10k I have in the bank is my 'non-poker funds' then I would probably take this bet.


I thought that zero actually meant zero.
But here, if you lose, you aren't really at zero....you're just replenishing your bankroll with money that was previously in your savings.

[xniNja]

This post is crazy. Whoever answers yes (I answered yes) doesn't have a large enough bankroll to analyze the situation properly. Just because it is the "best bet" in poker, doesn't mean betting your entire bankroll being the favorite is the right play. If your bankroll was $300K you would scoff at the question and it would never ever enter your mind to bet it all on one hand. On the other hand, like some have said.. if you had under 1k, of course, 10K maybe, 20K... I doubt most would unless they could replace that easily. I think the amount of $ in your bankroll is significant.

[primetime32]

there is no way i put my entire bankroll on AA. SPend 2 years building it up with hard work and then blow it on a gamble? yeah i am a big favorite, but how often do big favs win? Not often enough to justify blowing that kind of money.

[Benholio]

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This post is crazy. Whoever answers yes (I answered yes) doesn't have a large enough bankroll to analyze the situation properly.

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But that IS the question. The question is based on YOUR bankroll, whether large or small. Because people answer different due to different circumstances doesn't mean they are mis-analyzing the question.

[xniNja]

Sorry, doesn't have the bankroll necessary to analyze the situation from a general perspective. People above posted that anyone who wouldn't take this bet isn't a poker player, my point is most poker players with significant bankrolls would laugh at this bet.

[IggyWH]

I'm waiting for someone to tell the story where a guy was overheard in a casino bragging that he was worth 40 million dollars when someone said to the guy "I'll flip you for it".

Wish I could remember the specific details of the story but maybe someone else does...