Part-time SnG grinders

[joeblo]

[ QUOTE ]
I played 222 sngs in the past 3 days...

LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]


[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] curse you!!! Playing 222 would take me like 2 weeks!!! I need to get a dual 20" lcd setup someday...but for now, I'd be happy with 1!!!!

[kyro]

You're telling me you're making less than $10/tourney at the $215s?

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
if you only get eliminated from sng's when you are 75% or better to win the particular hand that busts you, then theory says, you should continue beyond these hands (i.e., you should win them and keep playing) 75% of the time (as x approaches infinity of course). Granted, this would be very hard to maintain, but it's a nice idea and a particular philosophy I try to adhere to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck with that. Even AKs vs. 72 offsuit isn't 75% to win.


[ QUOTE ]
However, as far as I'm concerned, and as far as the numbers are concerned, my odds might as well be starting over from this very moment. I am not *due* for anything, and neither are you.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are saying that you are just as likely to maintain your (ahem) 70% ROI indefinitely, since you are not necessarily "due" to do worse?

I'm no math expert, but I've never seen so many crazy twistings of the laws of statistics as I've seen in this thread.

[Nato76]

Tried the $33's last night and there is some difference from the $22's. I can be a little more aggressive in the $22's. I am basically break even right now. I am going to play some more tonight and if I don't see an improvement then I am going to move back down to the $22's.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
I am basically break even right now. I am going to play some more tonight and if I don't see an improvement then I am going to move back down to the $22's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do whatever you're comfortable with. But you do realize that 1 night (or 2) is not enough to tell you anything about your ability to beat the 33s, right?

As to your original post, if you are playing part-time for extra income, I'm not sure why you are so hung up on the $500 a week mark. I realize it's good to have a goal, but what if you make $450 a week. Is that no good?

The main thing is to play within your bankroll and at the levels you can beat. For you, that may well be the 33s - but I don't remember if you posted your bankroll anywhere this thread.

This is not a difficult question to answer for yourself. If your ROI is at a certain (sustainable) level, and you know how many SNGs you have time to play in a week - then it's simple. Multiply average profit per SNG x # of SNGs per week. There's your answer.

[Nato76]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am basically break even right now. I am going to play some more tonight and if I don't see an improvement then I am going to move back down to the $22's.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do whatever you're comfortable with. But you do realize that 1 night (or 2) is not enough to tell you anything about your ability to beat the 33s, right?

As to your original post, if you are playing part-time for extra income, I'm not sure why you are so hung up on the $500 a week mark. I realize it's good to have a goal, but what if you make $450 a week. Is that no good?

The main thing is to play within your bankroll and at the levels you can beat. For you, that may well be the 33s - but I don't remember if you posted your bankroll anywhere this thread.

This is not a difficult question to answer for yourself. If your ROI is at a certain (sustainable) level, and you know how many SNGs you have time to play in a week - then it's simple. Multiply average profit per SNG x # of SNGs per week. There's your answer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I understand that 2 days isn't going to tell me much about my play in the $33's. My BR is currently at $2k. I made my goal $500 but it would not be the end of the world if I came up short a week. I am going to use half of my winnings towards paying off bills and the other half towards my BR. I'm going to continue grinding and learning. I will post my results at the end of the week. I am trying to stick to the $33's but we will see what happens. I am busting out in 4th and 6th place way too much. I think I am playing too aggressive around the bubble.

[trdi]

I don't think we will see that lyer around anymore. He will come, but under other nickname. He will claim ITM 60% and ROI 80% this time.

[revots33]

My advice is: worry about improving your play and building your bankroll, rather than making x amount of dollars per week. If you keep winning and improving you'll be able to move up in limits, and the $ will take care of itself. Good luck!

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Slim has played 300 11s and 194 22s. His ROI is about 12 percentage points higher at the 11s! Clearly the 11s are much easier! Here's the data to prove it!

NOT!

While it's certainly more likely than not that Slim's true ROI is higher at the 11, the evidence here doesn't prove that. In my t-test I found that the probability that the difference in ROIs is explained by random chance is 30.47%. IT'S PERFECTLY POSSIBLE that Slim is actually better at the 22s than 11s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. It will be very hard for you to get any meaningful statistical discussion about the difference between levels because:

a) A typical 2+2 poster with statisics is a lot like a mule with a spinning wheel...
b) No one will play enough at the lower levels to develop a meaningful sample without either moving up or busting.

That being said, anecdotal evidence is just fine in deciding where to play. My ROI dropped 70% last night in two 33's because I pushed KK into AA (it happens) and 99 called my QQ all-in on an undercard board and sucked out, because well nothing beats an overpair of nines, right? Point is I've seen enough bad play in less than 10 33's to conclude with a fairly high degree of certainty that I'm going to go from a winning player to a losing player by moving up to the 33's, so I should do so according to my bankroll.

SlimP