Interesting No Limit Question

[Squirrel]

It's also suicide if you raise, and then fold to a reraise by the bare Jd, when in fact you were NOT being freerolled.

Confused yet? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Wayfare]

So let me get this straight. There is one holding you are behind of (Jd xd) and everything else you are making money from, and you guys want to fold?

Let's say you could keep on ratcheting the pot up with guy in first position, more or less assuring the flush draw puts in all his money if he wants to stay in. Isn't the 80% chance to increase your stack by 50% worth the tiny tiny chance that he has Jd Xd? Note further that the original question presupposes that you have a J and so does one other person, so isn't it even more unlikely that a third person has a Jack?

I don't understand the math well enough to figure out exactly how improbable it is.

I am very interested in seeing Sklansky's response, and I also think squirrel has been playing waaay too much omaha [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[knucklehead]

If after the flop he has both the straight draw and the flush draw, I'd think more money would be in the pot...

[aces961]

[ QUOTE ]
I still think folding is correct.

I wouldn't be shocked if David can produce mathematical evidence proving calling is SLIGHTLY correct.

Raising is suicide.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tom Collins has already done this.


[ QUOTE ]

Option B is then calling and folding if the flush gets there. If you call, the last player will call. He gets there 9/42 of the time. So you win $450 dead money 33/42 of the time and lose $200 9/42 of the time. This makes the EV about $310. So A is clearly wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]

Although when the flush draw doesn't hit you actually win 550 of dead money( you and the other straight chop the 200 the flush calls on the turn). This just adds to the ev slightly. So we still see that calling is better than foldling.

[Bernas]

The problem is if you raise, he will more than likely fold. If he folds than the best you can do is chop.

I am still very interested in what David has to say. I am leaning towards folding still but would consider a call.

[Squirrel]

David forgot to mention that player was Phil Hellmuth, and he didn't want to get his money in less than a 20-1 favorite.

[Squirrel]

What happens if the last player is on a flush draw with the Jd and puts in a raise small enough that you are now forced to call, but large enough that gives you horrible reverse implied odds.

I hope I worded that right.

[knucklehead]

After making this post and then reading other posts, if anyone has the Jd, it's the guy in early position and the $200 bet was a sucker bet, OUCH.

[Dan Rutter]

D

[Nottom]

** Scratch my previous post **

I like calling better.

Now time to read what others think ...