Simple Common Tournament Situation - Page 12

Vince Lepore · #**111** 10-30-2004, 03:35 PM

Your answer though not defended by math is right on the money. I don't know the math but it better factor in the likelyhood of a better situation arising on the next round. Although I'm sure it won't. I mean this is a Sklansky pure math situation isn't it.

Vince

Vince Lepore · #**112** 10-30-2004, 03:40 PM

Mason with all due respect. Tournament poker is not poker. There is value in survival. Chips change value. I have yet to see a survival factor introduced into any calculations of EV for tournament play. Is Sklansky just to lazy to do this?

Vince

Vince Lepore · #**113** 10-30-2004, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It should also be noted that being at the table with "no live ones" means that you aren't going to be getting equity from the pot to make it worth the gamble of QJ suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even "live ones" won't call with hands that can't beat Q,J. however, huge stacks might.

Vince

Vince Lepore · #**114** 10-30-2004, 03:57 PM

O.K so what would Spock do with Q,J? I will lay 5-1 that he knows the math or at least pretend like he does!

Your buddy,
Vince

lastchance · #**115** 10-30-2004, 05:37 PM

It's the early stages of a MTT. You're nowhere near the money. THERE IS NO SURVIVAL VALUE. You must steal or else you will go broke in the next 4 orbits, while you must make about 25 orbits to get into survival range, where you can start talking about folding this, if beating the bubble is a lot of money. You can't get blinded off to 2.5x BB in tournaments. This spot is WAY better than getting blinded off.

Vince Lepore · #**116** 10-30-2004, 06:25 PM

Well that is just not true. There is a broad definition to survival that includes seeing more hands for the chance of finding a better situation. This is also in line with Sklansky's "if you can make a better bet tomorrow you should give up a good bet today" or something like that. There just might be more value in T800 on the button than T1100 under the gun with 100-200 blinds. But that's not the issue.

If your 8 Clingon opponents will only call with 5% of the hands, hands that beat you, then EV in moving in goes something like this. You have a 60% chance of winning the blnds outright. In 100 attempts that equals 18K. You will be called 40% of the time. If you win 25% of times you are called you win ~12k so you win 30k for raising and winning. When you are called and lose it costs you 30k. So it is a wash. So if your opponents call more than 5% of the time but still only with hands that beat you and you only win 25% of the calls you will have a negative EV. On the other hand if you are only a 3 to 2 dog over all to the hands they call then you will show a positive EV. I'm waiting to see the right answer before I give mine.

Vince