Does he have a pocket pair often enough here?

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
ok here. I call in the BB with K2s, K9+, and any pair. There are 40 suited king combos, 54 unsuited king combos and 25 pair combos 33-99. Thats makes me a 4:1 dog and my effective odds are 16:5 or 3:1. Can someone please tell my why this is a ridiculously easy calldown??? Add to that the fact that low pocket pairs often fold with 2 left to act. I wouldn't raise low pocket pairs in this spot if I were BB with 2 to act and a tight raiser betting into me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here is a quick stove analysis:

Board: Kd 2h 2s
equity (%)
58% { 99-33, K2s+, K9o+ }
42% { TT }

Of course, this doesn't tell the whole story. Some things that can throw this towards a fold:

1. He plays worse offsuit kings.
2. He doesn't always raise pocket pairs on this flop
3. The fact that everyone folded makes it more likely that he has a King.

These might push it towards a call:

1. He doesn't always raise a King on this flop(no need for protection).
2. He reraises with some of the better Kings and pairs(99, KQs...maybe KJs/KQo).

With your 2-outer+chance of having the best hand and the pot size where it is, I think you should put a couple more bets in.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to add in a whole bunch of suited deuces. Perhaps discounted a bit but they should still be in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, do people blast X2s in this situation? X2s seems very very unlikely.

[Lmn55d]

See I wouldn't think most 30/20s would raise Ax here. I never would with 2 people to act behind me and a solid guy who raised from sb. I also think a lot would fold a lower pocket pair to the flop bet. How much you discount those makes all the difference here imo. Another factor is a lot of mid pocket pairs check the river, which improves the EV of calling. All in all, I think it is pretty close.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what kind of odds are fair for a HU match. How about my $500 vs your $400. 30BB freezeout either play money or .02/.04

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're laying him 5:4, I'll take the odds also--but I'll coach him beforehand. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Drontier]

does a full house beat a flush?

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You have to add in a whole bunch of suited deuces. Perhaps discounted a bit but they should still be in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh, do people blast X2s in this situation? X2s seems very very unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising any 2 here (in villains shoes) is terrible, for the same reasons that he should be raising AT or 44.

Surf

[kurosh]

Can I play someone HU too? blah blah you all suck at poker and should move down in limits if you like money

[me454555]

I think a guy w/30/20 stats is reraising PPs TT-AA as well as, AK, or KQ. I also doubt he defends w/lower than K9o but I could be wrong

Board: Ks 2h 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 51.0756 % 50.87% 00.21% { TT }
Hand 2: 48.9244 % 48.72% 00.21% { 99-33, KJs-K6s, KJo-K9o }

Since we may actually be ahead often enough to make this a coin flip, calling down makes a ton of sense.

If we expand the hand ranges to include more Kx, we get this

Board: Ks 2h 2d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.9552 % 37.80% 00.16% { TT }
Hand 2: 62.0448 % 61.89% 00.16% { 99-33, KJs-K3s, KJo-K6o }

By calling down we put in 5 sbs to win 15. We are essentially getting 3:1 on a 2:1 shot. Even then calling down is superior to folding

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
See I wouldn't think most 30/20s would raise Ax here. I never would with 2 people to act behind me and a solid guy who raised from sb. I also think a lot would fold a lower pocket pair to the flop bet. How much you discount those makes all the difference here imo. Another factor is a lot of mid pocket pairs check the river, which improves the EV of calling. All in all, I think it is pretty close.

[/ QUOTE ]

These are all very important points, and when they go different ways it makes it a really tough decision.

More and more i'm finding that the 30/20ers, while LAGy preflop, play a more solid game after the flop than a 24/16er like me who goes for razor-thin EV raises on flops like these. If this is indeed the case and he'll give up low PPs like 33-55 or an Ace here then we should be folding...I'm not sure how true that assertion is, though, so I keep calling down because I'm pleasantly suprised to scoop the pot often enough in my experiences.

Surf

[Surfbullet]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I play someone HU too? blah blah you all suck at poker and should move down in limits if you like money

[/ QUOTE ]

Kurosh, I challenge your claims that you are a winning player! I throw doubt upon your lineage and the honor of your mother! You smell funny too!

HU?

Surf