SNG Quiz

[freemoney]

i mean i have posted why and because no player is gonna keep their range at KK+ if you move in on in them in every hand. ICM is not nearly as practical as you want to believe.

[Newt_Buggs]

I worked out the math this morning but I didn't save it. When I worked it out this morning I think that the BB calling range had to drop to something like 77+,A10+ for this to be a bad push w 2,3o. No good 2+2er is calling this with 77

[Scuba Chuck]

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lol first of all by ssaying that every good player will answer the question correctly meaning the same as you is arrogant and the belief that there is only one answer is categorically wrong.

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Well, this depends on if you are going to play this as purely a preflop play or not. If your only choices are push or fold, then this is just a simple math problem. So, unless you think that math is an art, and not a science, then your words are too harsh.

Scuba

[chumdawg]

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I'm still trying to sort all this out. Could someone please help my understand why BB would fold AK if he knew SB was pushing any two?

If he folds, ICM shows him with 31.48% equity in the prize pool.

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Correct.


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If opponent is pushing with any two, AK is a pretty good favorite against that range, right?

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Not as much as you might think. Against any two, AKo is 65.3% to win. The 65% of the time you call and win, your ICM value is now 44.6%. The 45% of the time you call and lose, it's 0%. So, by calling, your EV is:

(.65 * 44.6) + (.45 * 0) = 29.2%, which is less than what you get by folding.

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The trouble I am having with ICM is that in trying to calculate the BB's resultant prize pool equity if he calls and wins, I'm getting a result that seems counterintuitive. It shows a 6000-chip stack at 44.6% equity against two 1000-chip stacks.

Unless I'm interpreting something wrong here, it seems to me that this puts the opponents, collectively, as a favorite against the big stack. That doesn't make a lot of sense to me. It means that the BB will finish second/third more often than first. Can this be correct?



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Yes, it is. This is why deals that allocate the prize pool by stack size are very biased towards the big stacks. It also explains why your last few chips are worth more than your 2nd thousand chips.

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Here's a question for you: if the SB pushed with AQo and then tabled his cards, what would the BB do with AK? My intuition says that he should call (and I would expect that yours does, too). How are you doing the math to come up with the answer to a question like this? Thanks.

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The math on this is pretty easy. AK is a 74.4% favorite over AQ. So, you're still at 46.6% if you win, but there's now a 74.4% chance of getting to that 46.6%.

(.744 * 44.6) = 32.2%, which is more than what you have left if you fold by 1.7%, which is generally accepted to be more than enough to call.

[/ QUOTE ]I bet that when you play you really give it 110%. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] (See the 65/45 explanation above.)

But seriously, thank you for the explanation. The thing that I had completely failed to give consideration to was that the maximum pool equity was 50%, as was highlighted by another poster later in the thread. I was thinking of 44.6% as "not even favored," when in fact it is the very strong situation that I believed it was...only there's nothing you can do about that half of the prize pool that they give to the other guys.

I'm a cash game player making the transition to SNG play, which I'm sure accounts for my slowness to come around to these concepts. But now, though, it's as if a light has come on...

[lastchance]

No, they're going to drop down to 99+.

[Matt Walker]

Here I just ran some math that some or all of you may find intersting.

Using eastbays program I set the SBs range to any two (I would assume if you know BB is a 2+2er, he also knows you are one and would adjust his range accordingly) The BB should call with 99+ if he knows you are pushing any two. Anything else loses money. Calling with AKs actually loses quite a bit of money, about 2 percent of prize pool. Calling with 88 costs about a percent. 99 gains less than a percent.

So it is safe to assume that a good players range won't be any larger than 99+ because for no pushing range is calling with 88 here a good play. Using 99+ as the calling range, it is still good for SB to push 32o as it gains him 1.3 percent of the prize pool. Thus even if the BB knows SB will push any two he's powerless to do anything about it.

I think this is clearly a push any two situtaion if you are never going to play these people again. Additionally if you get the blinds here you are the chip lead on the bubble with a couple relative short stacks, and we all know how powerful that can be.

This being said all these ICM calculations don't take metagame factors into consideration. If I know I'm going to be playing against these people in the future I'm going to have a very hard time folding AKs in the BB. By making a few spite calls and convincing the SB that I my call range is in fact wider than should be, his push range becomes smaller indefinatly which is good for my long term ROI. You're also very likely to get a spite call at least from me. There is an added bonus to taking some donk like strasser out that ICM just can't account for.

I think the reason there has been so much disagreement on this is because at the 10+1 level there are no metagame considerations. You won't see those people again. At the level Nick and Freemoney are playing it is important to take some -EV situations now so as to convince the SB in the situation that it is not profitable to push any two when you are in the BB.

[the shadow]

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There is an added bonus to taking some donk like strasser out that ICM just can't account for.


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It's more likely that strassa's gonna take out the donk. It's interesting to me that strassa thinks (or at least thought so last year) that AKo is an auto call. Check it out here.

The Shadow

[Big Limpin']

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There is an added bonus to taking some donk like strasser out that ICM just can't account for.


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It's more likely that strassa's gonna take out the donk. It's interesting to me that strassa thinks (or at least thought so last year) that AKo is an auto call. Check it out here.

The Shadow

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Throw the entire ICM crap out the window for now

[/ QUOTE ] (Strassa)

why i hate donk posts but love strassa.

[Moonsugar]

That hand is a very different hand than the one discussed in this thread.

[Matt Walker]

OK so I spend an hour or so posting several paragraphs of analysis I did and found helpful and you quote out of context the one line in there that was a joke. Thanks ass.

FWIW the situation linked too is completely differnet than the one I posted on. In the other situation there are even stacks whereas in this one there are two small stacks and you are going at it with the big stack. In the one you linked to you are likely to have them dominated being as a weaker ace is a very likely holding. Here you are as likely to see 75o as AQo if you believe the oponent will push any two. If you think a large percentage of this guys push range is poplulated by Ax that would be significatly better for AK than populated with two cards you don't dominate. No one disputes that. Also different is the fact that in the other situation if you win you are the big stack on the bubble which has its own advantages. In this situation your calling and winning or losing end the bubble.

BTW the line you quoted was meant to be sarcastic to drive home that there are other considerations besides ICM namely I would love to be able to say I took someone like him out. The same is true of Gigabet and a number of other players I consider good. I wish I could remove it now, but alas I can't.