60-120 hand Th3h

[skp]

To David and Andy,

I realize that the river question is a question different than the one you faced on the flop but the fact remains that in calculating the ev of the flop call, you are assuming that you will fold an unimprooved Ten on the river. That may or may not happen and if it doesn't happen, it does retrospectively affect the ev of the flop call.

This situation is unlike calculating the ev of hands that you know you will fold if you miss eg. calling with a little pair preflop to try and hit a set.

[Rick Nebiolo]

I love and respect Andy but trust coilean a bit more when it comes to the math and analysis when it gets this complex. Does anyone out there know him well enough to draft him into this discussion (e.g., pm or email him)?

I'd put up ten bucks for a detailed post. Would anyone match me?

~ Rick

[anduril]

11-1 immediately when you quite possibly have the best hand and 9-1 on the turn when you could still be ahead but have 12 cards to improve if someone has you outkicked. This is -EV to call the flop? I understand you have a weak hand but you also have position and if a bad card comes on the turn and there is a bet and raise in front of you then it's probably safe to fold anyway. I realize he is basically drawing to a draw, but 11-1, jebus...

[anduril]

N1

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize he is basically drawing to a draw...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is wrong and can't understand what hands you are putting the opponents on. Someone come up with plausible hands for opponents and trace a likely scenario in which this call BY ITSELF is likely to be -EV. No fair compounding this with poor turn and river play (and yes, I think overcalling the river will often be wrong, odds or no odds, depending on the board and the turn action).

Put the opponents on HANDS and this starts to become a meaningful thread.

JimmyV

[andyfox]

I'll PM him. I know him casually, but what the hell.

BTW, no need to apologize, I love and respect Andy too but I trust Coilean a LOT more than I trust Andy on this type of thing.

As far as putting up $10:

Last time I saw him he came out to Commerce. We had lunch and I wasn't going to play. But the usually abominable service in the Commerce coffee shop was much better that day, all the way up to atrocious, and I had a bit more time than I thought. So I sat with him in a 40-80 game. First round I get pocket aces and lose with 'em. After about 15 minutes and not playing another hand, I have to go, so lunch cost me about $600. So screw his $10.

However . . . A few days later I come to play, raise on the button against 42 limpers (including him), make a flush on the turn, get called down on the turn and the river AMHWG. Coilean says, "There, that makes up for the pocket aces."

We poker players are peculiar people. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[anduril]

ok saying drawing to a draw was not exactly what I meant. I meant that maybe 1/4 of the time you are ahead in this hand. Being behind an overpair is unlikely because there was no pf raise, so being outkicked is more likely unless youre up against a set in which case you need runner runner to win, but you can't assume this. You do not have enough information to know that your hand is no good and not worth playing. Hence raising the turn lets you see a showdown for free, because like you say, overcalling the river is probably bad. 11- on the flop and 9-1 on the turn when you improve against passive players is more than enough for me.

[mike l.]

why dont you just mail $10 to gabe because his email is about 90% the greatness of coilean. and it says call.

[Michael Davis]

OK, I realize I am way against the grain here, so I will just straightforwardly admit I am obviously wrong, without requiring 5000 posts arguing against me and then modifying my position only a little bit. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Anyways, I don't like the turn raise. I believe you stated somewhere else in this thread that there was no chance the original bettor was folding a better hand, so there isn't really much semibluffing value here. You're betting that the times it is best and will stay best plus the times it improves to the best are enough for 25% pot equity. I think you probably have a close raise here.

But, I don't think you can raise because of all the other things that might happen. You might get 3-bet by the original bettor and could clear out the others, and now you've paid two extra losing money bets when you are almost certainly drawing. Or, your raise knocks nobody out, but your opponents either have so many damn outs against you that the raise isn't worth it, or you don't have nearly as many outs as you optimally might, because higher flush draws and/or Ts are out there. It is completely results oriented, but if the BB or somebody would have had a T in this hand, you are effed.

Generally, I think "value" raises on the turn with a hand likely to be drawing are bad. I have seen a lot of posts on the small stakes forum where this play is being way overused. I think if your raise is going to get a bunch of callers in situations like this, your outs are probably fewer than they need to be in order to get value out of this raise.

Also, I don't think this raise gives you much of a free showdown advantage, and there are a lot of situations, like when one of your draws spikes, that you don't want the free showdown and would prefer to be bet into. And I think you're getting a freeshowdown in this hand a lot of times without raising the turn, such as when an overcard hits the river. This type of hand where one guy is firing into a large field that is just calling is the likeliest for getting a free showdown. These same loose-passive players are the type who will often miss solid river value bets, and I think it is possible the player who hit the river might have checked anyways. (This is 60-120, so even loose-passive players might be more prone to value bet, I really don't know.)

Finally, I find it completely inconsistent given the action that you checked the river.

Anyways, of course I am wrong, so flame away.

-Michael

[obi---one]

I agree with Micheal's post. I dont think you have as many outs as you think you do. Seven people took the flop and four took the turn, there are a lot of hand comboes out there and the ones drawing live with straight/flushes are not going any where. I think a call is the best action as well.