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#101
08-24-2005, 09:41 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
Reviewing another hand made me realize I goofed a little bit on the EV calcs. If the A/Q draws have +EV as they do, then there is additional +EV when we spike an A or Q on the river after calling the turn with a FD / OESD / gutshot. I didn't account for 2 chances to spike a pair because I looked narrowly at "no turn spike = no see the river" when in fact the overs will have two chances to spike those times we peel to the river. Probably not off by more than 5% or so, but in the interest of completeness I goofed.
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#102
08-24-2005, 10:07 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
I noticed that too, but we can't bet a rivered A/Q and jason will check behind with hands that can't beat them, so we don't gain any additional bets, just what's in the pot the times we're ahead then.
-d
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#103
08-25-2005, 10:13 AM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
this hand wouldn't be truly hilarious without the results... jason... if you would please [/ QUOTE ] the fans are chanting his name...Rocky...Rocky...Rocky...
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#104
08-25-2005, 01:08 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
I noticed that too, but we can't bet a rivered A/Q and jason will check behind with hands that can't beat them, so we don't gain any additional bets, just what's in the pot the times we're ahead then. -d [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, but coerrect me if I'm wrong here. The way I set up the various outcomes, when we're caling the turn with a FD or SD, I automatically count as a "losing hand" any hand that doesn't complete the specific draw at issue. If instead an A falls when we are going for the FD, even if Jason checks behind and no more bets go in, we pick up the pot some portion of the time instead of it being tabulated as a -1.5 BB loss. This picking up the pot isn't being captured by the "turn an A or Q" possibility, and isn't being tabulated in the other draws scenario. Essentially, by calling the turn to see the river with a strong draw, we have a second chance to hit the weak draw (pair) that wins some small portion of the time.
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#105
08-25-2005, 01:41 PM
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Re: Wynn 15/30 Out-counting exercise
[ QUOTE ]
this hand wouldn't be truly hilarious without the results... jason... if you would please [/ QUOTE ] No wonder Jason has been arguing that he should have folded...
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