Simple handreading

[deetle]

I like the slowplay also, on this board let them come along.

[Harv72b]

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I also think it's funny how you're saying "set will check there very close to 100% of the time" and Harv27b is saying "this is set over set something very close to 100% of the time."

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I noticed this & found it amusing, too. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I might be presuming too intently that this was played on one of the higher limits that sfer mentioned, and thus giving the villian too much credit for solid and sophisticated play. But the reason that you lead this flop with a set against a thinking opponent is that he wouldn't normally expect it. The fact that the other 3 players in the hand are terrible and will readily call 2 bets with any hand they'd call 1 with (and I'm assuming the villian would've picked up this read within the two orbits we know he's been at the table) is just icing on the cake.

This is the same basic principle that leads me to believe that villian might have 55. You lead the flop into the raiser because, on the higher limits, flop play is often just an extension of preflop. He expects to get raised because his play is representing an underpair, and any hand that sfer would raise with preflop behind 3 limpers is justified in staying in the pot against 55 or another small/medium PP. If it does get heads up (as it did), the standard play is to check the turn, where sfer probably checks through with AQ or a higher PP less than kings, and then bet a non-A river when sfer checks through.

So leading the set is actually representing a weaker hand than villian has, setting him up to 3-bet the flop after sfer raises and the donks coldcall. But then the donks don't coldcall, and villian changes gears because he fears sfer will call a 3-bet and fold the turn UI with a hand like AQ or maybe even a medium PP. He instead opts to continue playing this like an underpair: checking the turn, but then raising when sfer bets it, hoping that sfer has AK or AA but knowing that he at least got an extra SB out of the hand if sfer folds to the c/r.

Irregardless of whether it's a set or 2 pair or an overplayed top pair, I think we're all in agreement that the proper play for sfer is to 3-bet the turn and continue raising as much as possible in the hand.

[tansoku]

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Flop is K74 rainbow. Checks to the player on my right who bets, I raise, folds back to him and he calls. His stats are roughly 25/9/1.5 and he seems unremarkable from 2 orbits of observation.

HU for 7 BBs. Turn is a 5. He checks, I bet, he checkraises. Give me a plan and a range of hands he could have.

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Flopped set slowplays this here most often I think as a bet by the pflop raiser is highly likely. Any high pair 3 bets pflop, as does AK/AQs types and maybe KQs.
Given your flop raise, I doubt any KJ or weaker king check-raises that turn as he now thinks you have AK/AA.
So, it's either 2 pair (unlikely as anyone who limps early with K7/K4 you would have noticed by now) or a set on the turn.

Leaves a 55/66 that took a stab at the flop hoping it missed you, then called so it didn't look like he was stealing. Or a similarly played A6s that turned an OESD.

Pot is pretty big, he aint going anywhere, 3 bet and cap the turn. chk-call a 3, 5, 8 river card, bet/raise anything else.

[elindauer]

Sorry if they're here and I just can't find them. Were the results of this posted? There was a debate in this thread about the probability of the donker having a set which would be changed significantly by hearing his actual hand.

Thanks,
Eric

[Nick C]

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Sorry if they're here and I just can't find them. Were the results of this posted? There was a debate in this thread about the probability of the donker having a set which would be changed significantly by hearing his actual hand.

Thanks,
Eric

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The handreading didn't seem simple to me, so I didn't respond to this thread, because I wasn't sure what to write. (Also, I suppose I was worried about making myself look stupid.)

Anyway, though, like Eric, I hope SFer hasn't simply abandoned this thread.

[oreogod]

first look at the hand I think he has either 88,66,55. But after the turn action I think he has 66 or 55 and the turn either improved him to a set or open ended. He could have KQ, but I think he'd raise pre.

I go insane on the turn.