Sweating a Friend, he makes this fold. Opinions? - Page 10

A_PLUS · #91 05-12-2005, 06:07 PM

I take it back, we are even. In another MTT.

MP+1 raises 3X BB. (TAG player, protective of chips, ignorant of pot odds and hand ranges)

I make it 8X BB to go from CO with JJ.

Flop A K 6 rainbow

he checks, I bet 2/3 pot, he thinks for too long and calls.
Turn 7

He checks, I push, he goes in the tank and shows AQ as he mucks.

locutus2002 · #92 05-12-2005, 06:08 PM

AA is within my range of calling hands. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Based on your style of play you may not have as much fold equity as you think! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

I know I don't. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

gumpzilla · #93 05-12-2005, 06:11 PM

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He checks, I push, he goes in the tank and shows AQ as he mucks.

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It's entertaining to me that you give this postflop hand completely without stack sizes (though we can reconstruct and determine you had 20+ BBs at least) and try and make it seem like it is in any way, shape or form related to this thread.

A_PLUS · #94 05-12-2005, 06:12 PM

Probably true. I just couldnt resist. Bubble, all of his chips....he will need AA to call! oops.

I did hit a pair, BB, and backdoor flush on the flop, that has to count for something

Moonsugar · #95 05-12-2005, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
And even if hero is a 55-45, or even 60-40, favorite, what's so exciting about that? The only reason he should be happy about getting his chips in considering the stack sizes is if he's not very good, or all his opponents are very good.

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I will take 1.5:1 on my money as a 55:45 fav any day of the week, no matter how good or bad I am v. my opponents.

I like getting chips. More chips more chips more chips. Man I wish I could be offered this bet more often. More chips more chips more chips.

Is that wrong?

SoBeDude · #96 05-12-2005, 09:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The people who accept that you are at worst 60/40 and still want to fold (with a lot of money in the pot already) are frankly insane. This idea that you have all sorts of opportunities to get your money in the middle with an overwhelming edge is nonsense.

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Only 7 posts and this wdcbooks guy is already one of my favorite posters. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I wish I had been 1/10th this smart when I had 7 posts!

-Scott

MLG · #97 05-12-2005, 09:59 PM

you're also not answering the question. if you want to debate that this is not an obvious call, start by answering those questions.

SoBeDude · #98 05-12-2005, 10:03 PM

There has been no mention of how the hero plays, but given that Sobe is making him sound like scared money, it's entirely reasonable to think that he's not bullying as much as he should be. The less hero has been stealing, the tighter BB's range is likely to be. The only clue we have to BB is that he's tight. We don't know how good he is or is not. Is a resteal in his arsenal? Has he made plays like this before?

I have been remiss in leaving out these details. Infortunately I was multi-tabling at the time so I can't give u all a solid read on the play at the table.

Table just got to 5, and same table was there from 9 players. Hero was more than a little aggressive, but was dumping when someone came over the top all-in, unless he had a monster. He has laid down to reraises a few times in the last several orbits. But I'd say he was certainly one of the more active players at the table. So their appearance of him is probably on the aggro side, but not maniac-like.

I have no direct read on the Villian, other than that Hero felt he was tight.

-Scott

gumpzilla · #99 05-12-2005, 11:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Table just got to 5, and same table was there from 9 players. Hero was more than a little aggressive, but was dumping when someone came over the top all-in, unless he had a monster. He has laid down to reraises a few times in the last several orbits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given this information, then it is definitely a call.

MLG, I wasn't answering the questions simply because there was insufficient information at the time to give useful answers to them, in my opinion, which was the entire point of my response. I don't have hard and fast numbers for the "mathematical advantage" that I would need to call, either, because a) I'm not convinced chip EV is the most productive way to look at this decision, b) if I don't want to look at it that way, my alternatives at the moment are: a lot of work implementing 10-way ICM calculations or some other method of calculating tournament equity; pulling some numbers regarding tourney placement out of my ass, which is okay for satellite reasoning but sucks when 9th through 1st are all going to have substantially differentiated payouts; quoting something Raymer once said somewhere. Of these, the only one that's particularly appealing is the first one, and I'll try to do that in the next few days and tell you what I think after that.