$4.5 million

[mackthefork]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you doubt my statement just engage in a thought experiment. Let's say we played a 6 billion person tourney. Over and Over. Standard steep payout structure.

Would you expect your variance in those tournies to be higher or lower than a 200 person tourney played over and over? 100 person? 50? 10? 5?

Your variance in a FREEZEOUT format decreases with the number of opponents. The problem is that you that you confuse side game variance with repeatable freezeout variance. Well actually the problem is that you cannot think and must resort to mindless one word replies, but I digress.

If all that isn't enough I can dig up my extensive stars heads up match stddev and my party sng stddev.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi there

I just read this now, the main problem with heads up games is you have to play a lot of situations which are complicated and to be honest you would probably rrather avoid, you also have to do an insane amount of bluffing and semi bluffing, this sends your variance through the roof. I don't think it matters how good you are 20 buyins is no where near enough, but I guess if you don't care about going broke and you're really good, it doesn't matter how high the risk of ruin is.

Also SNGs have less variance than any other form of poker, there is no doubt about this, but playing SNGs for a living with a roll of 20 buyins would also be daft.

Regards Mack

[Smoothcall]

I was just taking Barry at his word when he said he and the others don't feel your a proven winner in there game. I didn't know he makes false accusations. He didn't strike me as someone who would make false accusations. But you know him better than me. You both come off arrogant(no offense just calling it like i see it). But you both come off as honest people. And both seem to be overall good guys. Just both a little bit too confident imo. So i assumed he was being honest when he made those comments. As i didn't think he would speak for others in the game if he did not know there feelings. My apologies if he was lying.

How do you know Barry isn't the winningest cash game player of the decade? He went on to say other in the game would back him up on that. Or said they have backed him up on that. Is this a lie?

I really don't know who to believe now. I have always seen you as a good honest guy from afar. And by most account a nice guy. So i have to respect what your saying has some merit. But if you are right than does that mean Barry is a liar? Barry seemed to come off honest as well. Maybe we should start taking what he says with a grain of salt.

Anyway thanks for taking the time to clear things up a bit. And i apologize for some of my comments i said about you. I have been a bit harsh and too quick to attack. Good luck at the series!

[Equal]

lol@smoothcall.

[Zetack]

[ QUOTE ]
I was just taking Barry at his word when he said he and the others don't feel your a proven winner in there game. I didn't know he makes false accusations. He didn't strike me as someone who would make false accusations. But you know him better than me. You both come off arrogant(no offense just calling it like i see it). But you both come off as honest people. And both seem to be overall good guys. Just both a little bit too confident imo. So i assumed he was being honest when he made those comments. As i didn't think he would speak for others in the game if he did not know there feelings. My apologies if he was lying.

How do you know Barry isn't the winningest cash game player of the decade? He went on to say other in the game would back him up on that. Or said they have backed him up on that. Is this a lie?

I really don't know who to believe now. I have always seen you as a good honest guy from afar. And by most account a nice guy. So i have to respect what your saying has some merit. But if you are right than does that mean Barry is a liar? Barry seemed to come off honest as well. Maybe we should start taking what he says with a grain of salt.

Anyway thanks for taking the time to clear things up a bit. And i apologize for some of my comments i said about you. I have been a bit harsh and too quick to attack. Good luck at the series!

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that we have to go calling people liars. Most of the stuff you're referring to are people stating opionions not facts. Thus they could be wrong without being liars.

For instance, Daniel's up a million bucks--what's the sample size? That's only 125 BB's in that game. Could somebody honestly say he's not a proven winner from that information? Could Barry simply be acting on less information than Daniel, not having seen or necessarily been aware of all the times Daniel has played?

Also, when you have an opinion, often you assume others whom you respect share that opinion so you express the opinion that they agree with you, even when you may not have specifically discussed the issue with them. Is that lying?

As far as who is the winningist cash game player and who isn't, again its not like they've all published their income tax returns, so its a matter of opinion...

--Zetack

[pager23]

Well said.

[Mason Malmuth]

You should read my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics. You will see that I made this exact argument over twenty years ago.

MM

[TransientR]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By most defintions he has a problem, but it's negated by his skill.




[/ QUOTE ]

His risk of ruin at 20 buyins heads up would be astronomical, no amount of skill can overcome it.

Mack

[/ QUOTE ]

Not one of the high limit players that made it there did it without taking risks that risk averse people would claim are foolish.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that many high limit players had to take risks to get the bankroll to play high limit, and there are probably any number of players who have the skill to compete for the highest stakes, but don't have the nerve. Just like only a relatively small percentage of people try mountain climbing and other dangerous sports, no matter how athletic and fit they are.

I hope, though, you have some money set aside, safe from the variance of gambling. But maybe for the high stakes gambler, that weakens the thrill.

Anyway, gl at the series and at the Wynn, and keep up your poker journal, few top players write for the public as often or with such openness.

Frank

[Smoothcall]

I know what your saying. And thats true for some of it. But Barry has said on more than one occasion others in the big game have agreed with him(about daniel not being proven and not one of the top players, and about barry being the winningest player) and backed him up on on these 2 issues. So if Daniel says that is only what "barry says". It implies that he believes barry to be lying. That he doesn't believe Barry has had corroboration on these issues like Barry tells us. That would imply daniel is saying he's lying.

[djack]

[ QUOTE ]

"Barry Says" doesn't make it gospel. Last year I played in the $4000-$8000 game and while it's true I haven't logged a lot of hours in the game I am over a million winner. Of course Barry was rarely in the game when I played since he lives in LA and the game generally happens in Vegas.

[/ QUOTE ]

Daniel -- As you well know, $1M in the 4k/8k is only 125 big bets. Hardly enough to make you a "proven winner," especially considering the relatively small number of hands you played to get that 125 big bets.

It's quite possible that you're a proven winner in that game, but it's too early to say with any degree of confidence.

[djack]

[ QUOTE ]
You should read my book Gambling Theory and Other Topics. You will see that I made this exact argument over twenty years ago.

[/ QUOTE ]
Mason -- I assume you're referring to this: [ QUOTE ]
Not one of the high limit players that made it there did it without taking risks that risk averse people would claim are foolish.

[/ QUOTE ] But it would be easier if you'd reference it.