Play a Hand With the Masters #2 Flop

[Jason Strasser]

I mean

You have top 2 pair and <30bb.

If he CR you... you get it in. You cant fold. If he calls then you figure out how to get more money in and make that decision when you see the turn....

....

-Jason

Well, your math is completely based on your guess as to how often each bet size will be called, and so its only accurate if your guess is accurate, and there is no way of knowing that, so I'm not sure how this analysis helps.

However, I feel that I get played back at more often with the half pot bet here than the 2/3 pot bet vs unknown villain if villain caught a small piece of the flop, and although I like the reasoning that against a strong villain, a bigger bet may look weaker and may actually be more likely to be played back at, once again we do not have a read on the villain and that is just a guess.

I feel that if we are ahead (and we crush his range as stated), we are making villain make a mistake with both bet sizes, but I also think we are making villain commit that mistake or potentially an even bigger mistake more often with the 1/2 pot bet, and the value we possibly lose by not getting called or potentially inducing a bigger error vs the extra chips we gain from an increased flop bet if called is what it comes down to, and that is a guessing game without some kind of spectacular read on villain (We don't know how often he folds to the bigger bet, where he would call or play back at the smaller bet, or the other way around). Any bet from 1/2 pot - 2/3 pot in this spot is going to be similar in nature and usually in results, but I think I get players to make more, and sometimes bigger, mistakes betting 1/2 pot here.

[m1illion]

Villans range is any two cards at this point. Ok Any two suited, any connectors and up.
I'm checking this flop only because I am heads up and if the BB missed any bet is most likely to cause a fold.
By the same token I intend to bet and/or raise any turn card. I have to deny any straight or flush possibilities the turn brings. Likewise if he reraises my turn bet it will help define my place.

[DyessMan89]

Havent checked the replies, but Im potting this. Given table image, my hand strength, and the fact that there are some potential scare cards (11) out there. Not to mention I might get a loose call from someone who thinks Im trying to take the pot away.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="red">What do you do if he raises you? </font>

All-in? Call. (I'm about 78% to win against the range I gave) Not all-in? Re-raise all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not that I disagree with getting all your money in here, but there is a logical flaw I wanted to point out. Even if the range you put him on when he calls preflop is 100% accurate, that is not the same as the range that he check-raises with. Obviously, the hands that have a solid piece of the flop are more likely to check-raise than those that whiff.

So if you wanted to go about it this way, the check-raise gives you new information, and you have to reassess his range of hands based on that information.

[KingDan]

I bet whatever I normally bet after I raise pf, around 400 here.

I never check this... what cards will get us more action on the turn ((that we want) that won't pay us on the flop?

If CRed I call and lead turn or just push.

[Guelph]

Good point. However i'm only behind AA, KK, JJ, and QT.

I would feel confident that AA/KK/JJ are all re-raising PF, leaving only QT to worry about.

Does QT c/r here? Or does he have a read on me that says I'll keep firing on the turn and river?

Other hands I see C/R here include AJ or KJ thinking he's trapped me, KQ or QJ hoping to push me off a weak suited ace.

[McMelchior]

The modest PF raise "only" mandated the BB to call for 6% of his stack; because of that I'm willing to put him on any hand it makes sense to see a flop with - by far not necessarily a strong hand.

This includes:
AA thru 22
Axs
AKo thru A9o
any suited connector down to 87s
any connector down to T9
any suited one-gapper down to T8s
any one-gapper down to J9.
KTs

I hold it unlikely he has AA thru QQ and AK, expecting a PF re-raise here, but I have to at least consider the (vague) possibility he could be slow-playing one of these hands.

This leaves putting him on a range close to 20% of all possible holdings.

The flop is very safe for me - the only likely holding of villain's that puts me in jeopardy is JJ and QT - but the lack of possible draws makes it tricky to extract money from villain.

At the same time I'm hesitant to let him see the turn for free, since 8 cards (the Qs and the Ts) out of the remaining 47 cards are bound to make me sweat, should he come alive there.

So I am betting. My standard continuation bet of half the pot (300) is a possibility, but if villain has no part of the flop he'll have to fold, and that's not what I'm interested in.

On the other hand, a min-bet of 100 could easily be perceived as a trap, and min bets stink anyway.

So I bet 200, allowing the pot to offer him 4:1, and hoping to entice him to stay in with hands including Aces and Kings.

I'm absolutely thrilled if he check-raises me. I take a check raise to mean a range from AJ, KJ, KQ, QJ, to possibly Ax (testing my conviction), in addition to the only two hands I'm behind: QT and JJ.

Even in worst case I still have 4 outs twice. If I'm check-raised I'm pushing, believing I'll find myself ahead most of the time and with plenty odds.

If he flat calls and the turn is neither Q nor T, I'm raising if he bets into me (refusing to believe QT or JJ not to mention a turned set - and putting him on a bluff), and I'm probably checking after if he checks.

I'll still have the option of getting away from the river if a Q or T falls (and the going gets rough, and my gut-feeling is that I'm beat, which is far from certain), having invested less than 20% of my stack.

If any other card falls on the river and I'm bet into, I'm planning on pushing (since a pot sized raise obviously - also for villain - will pot-commit me, and a min-raise still stinks).

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Everyone seems to be assuming that AA and KK are very unlikely here because he would have reraised preflop. I'm not so sure. His call ended the betting and so he knew the pot would be heads up. Thus there is no question of him raising to thin the field. While some people would still value bet preflop with such powerhouse hands, an equally viable strategy here is to look at the flop, with the ideal number of people and a totally disguised hand.

By the way I'm not saying we should fear him having one of these hands because you can't assume you're up against a monster everytime someone calls your preflop raise. If he raises our bet on the flop (I originally said check it but I have been convinced that this would be too easy to see through) we are looking to get a substantial amount of our chips in there, probably all of them if his raise is anything more than a minraise.

[Exitonly]

no, AA and KK aren't likely because there are only two of each left in the deck.


Also, he probably woudl have raised.