Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?

[Vince Lepore]

No way. I will just quit posying if this is allowed.

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Vince Lepore]

No way. I will just quit posting if this is allowed.

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Vince Lepore]

So you are a pro poker player. You earn you your living playing poker or did you make up your own definition of a professional?
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Vince

[West]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would a great tournament player risk his very good chance of winning the tournament on at best a toss up so early in the competition.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is at best a toss up. I believe Paul has stated that he felt Gus' raise was virtually automatic. Obviously Gus is aware of how aggressive he plays.

As it turned out, Gus was a better than 57% favorite (no one has said that his AQ was suited, so I am assuming it wasn't). Your initial post said Gus raised to 250k, but it also said the blinds were 25/50k. Given that the blinds were 50/100k, I'm not sure what Gus' raise was (somewhere Paul mentioned how much dead money was in the pot), but even if it was still only 250k, that's still 650k or so of dead money in the pot that he is giving up his equity in by folding the best hand. Obviously if his actual raise was 300 or 350, then you're talking another 100 or 200k.

Sure, Tomko is the most likely for 3rd, but he is certainly far from done. And 1st pays twice as much as second

1 Paul Phillips $1,101,980
2 Dewey Tomko $552,853
3 Gus Hansen $276,426

How tragic would folding here be if Paul made his move with 99? Or 88? What about AT?

His opponents are also excellent players...if it was Vince Lepore in this position instead of Gus Hansen, and you would lay down your tens in the same position, you are giving the green light to Paul Phillips to significantly improve his chances of winning first by going over the top of you...increasing your chances of third at the cost of reducing your chances of first.

I'm calling in Gus' shoes every time absent a great read that I'm against a monster. But since it's been stated several times that the consideration of Tomko finishing third reduces the benefit of calling here, I would love to see some mathematical analysis to show it - couldn't help but benefit me and everyone else reading.

[dr.gonzo]

Vince, you ever thought that this no one correct way to play this hand? Just because the way you would play it differed to how Paul played it doesnt mean that you are correct.

You say that you would have just called because the drop-off between 2nd and 3rd was huge. Calling may well be the correct play for YOU here then, as not placing 3rd is your primary concern. For someone who's main goal is winning the tournament, and given the hands that Gus is likely to raise in this position with (ie anything), then moving in is clearly a good option if your main focus is to actually win the tournament.

A-Q in this situation had a very good chance of being a favourite, or making Gus fold. gus actually gave quite a lot of consideration into folding his 10s here. If he did then everyone would be saying what a great play it was by Philips. As it was he called, Paul was still only a small dog and figuring the money that was already in the pot due to the blinds and antes was definately getting the correct odds to make up for being a small dog.

If winning the tournament is your primary goal then moving in is clearly not a bad option. It put the pressure on Gus to make a decision for all his chips and that is never a bad thing.

Playing not to lose is no way to win.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh. so now you believe that Philips moved in all of his chips trying to "trap" Gus with a Q,J. You know I saw Philips face when Gus called his bet. I may be wrong but he sure looked like a guy that was hoping that his opponent folded.

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]


He could've looked like that to you. He also could've looked like a guy trying to look like a guy trying to look like that.

My point is that there are more reasons to push in other than a lack of confidence. Trapping an inferior hand is one of the reasons I wouldn't mind pushing in. Likewise, pushing a man OFF a problematic hand (say, a small pair) is likewise an incentive.

And there are more factors to take into consideration OTHER than the aforementioned (and incorrect) lack of confidence.


Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[ChrisW]

> You say MY reasoning was silly, yet then refute it by
> using a hypothetical situation when a literal one exists.

Do you really have such a poor understanding of logical argumentation? It's called a "counter-example." The point is that racing vs. non-racing has nothing to do with whether to call a bet. The idea in tournaments is to avoid high variance, small +EV plays. Often times, a race falls into that category of plays to avoid, but not always, especially when you've already committed chips to a pot and expect to be on the better side of the race.

> Gus had raised barely over 10% of his stack and called 2M
> more for a shot at ~2.6M.

There are those pesky little blinds and antes, so it's more like 2.7M.

> And yes, the equity of calling vs folding given EXACT
> hands, not factoring that PP might have an overpair, is
> pretty close but why make a high variance play with
> little actual difference in EV, silly?

Are you talking about chip EV when you say "little actual difference in EV"? If so, you need to retake junior high school algrebra before you post again. Gus was calling T2M to win a pot of T4.7M 57% of the time. His mathematical expectation is to come away with .57*T4.7M, which is T2.68M.

To understand the absurdity of your claim is that there is "little actual difference in EV" between calling and folding, let's imagine that Gus lays down the TT. On the next hand, Gus is in the BB with AKo, and he has T2M left before posting. Paul moves Gus in from the button and accidentally flashes Gus 87o. Should Gus call? This looks like an ideal spot, right? Well, AKo will beat 87o 62.4% of the time for a T4.06M pot (T2M each from Gus and Paul, plus T60K from Dewey's SB and ante). That gives Gus an expected chip return of .624*T4.06M, which is T2.54M. That's T140K less than his EV from calling on the actual TT vs. AQ.

This example proves that given the actual hands, Gus's best chance to have a lot of chips and win the tournament was to call, as even a great situation of all in with AK vs 87 on the next hand would yield a lower chip EV than calling with the TT.

As I said in my previous post, there are some payout considerations that make the cash EV question closer.

[Bernas]

Neither made a mistake. Both made great plays here.

[RowdyZ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is it just me or is Vince just a giant douche bag?


[/ QUOTE ]

Matt,

Are you allowing this kind of stuff on this forum now? I'd like to see this fellows posting priveleges suspended. If you don't suspend him then please ensure he cannot reply to any of my posts. I will do in kind to his.
If neither can be done, I do understand but regrettably will not post on 2 + 2 again. Thank you.

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Mat,

I think I speak for all of us please continue to allow DP to post and respond to Vince, in fact perhaps you could put in an auto alert feature that everytime Vince posts DP gets a message so that he can respond more quickly.
Countless posts over 2 threads and even one of the Great Gods of 2+2 have come down from Olympus and said he is wrong and he still persists in fighting. Lets see how many final tables has Hansen made? I can't count all of them, How many tables has Phillips made? A bunch I remeber one day I think I saw him on 4 different show on 3 channels. Loved the orange hair BTW. So lets see, Hansen=lots of final table and making the money, Phillips, lots of final table and money finishes. Lepore.... Lepore... Damn who is this guy again?
I think it is pretty clear who is WRONG.

RZ

[fnurt]

If you are talking about expected prize money rather than chip stacks, the decision comes out to be extremely close. You might even call it a coin flip.

Paul might have a hand like 99, but he also might have JJ. I think the chances of him having a higher/lower pocket pair pretty much cancel each other out.

So putting that aside, if you think there is even a 10% chance that Paul has something like AT (i.e., hands that Gus is a solid favorite over), the call is clear.

Another factor no one has mentioned is future position. Until Dewey busts out, and who knows when that will be, Gus is going to be in bad position with respect to the other big stack. That factor should make Gus more inclined to take a gamble.