Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[Jamie Collins]

Hello softrock,

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my question - given our knowledge that Dynasty is quite capable of making a move here how do you decide when or if to fold JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I was pondering. So I'll let our other esteemed posters comment.

My thoughts: Clarkmeister noted he would 3-bet. Something I didn't consider. Usually when I'm confused, which I sometimes am in Mr. JJ's place....I go into a shell and check-call (which some posters noted would be the worst option here).

Calling in this spot usually produces 2 results after the showdown:
I'm upset I payed off the good player like a slot machine.
or
I'm upset I didn't get more money in the pot.

I'd be interested to know how the 3-bettors would proceed if 4-bet ........and if they pay off all river cards.

Regards,
Jamie

[DcifrThs]

this is one of those situations where you are out of position against dynasty with a good but not great hand.

BUT, its made easier by the preflop play. in my first post on this subject i was convinced that my bayesian analysis was correct and scoffed at the 3betting tactic because dynasty 3bet a good and a weaker player preflop expecting a cap or at least a call. that means his hands with which to get tricky with later on have been limited. he would not 3bet here with AcQc and i am pretty sure about that.

so, as per my original post, AcKc, an unimproved AK (since mp is drawing) or overpair are the likely hands. one thing i did not fully take into account was the fact that he CALLED the checkraise. this eliminates TT in my mind no matter what people say. this good play c-r'd dynasty indicating for sure and big pair. TT is the only hand that could be beaten by every c-ring hand held by the early good player. thus TT is gone.

this leaves JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK as i originally thought. but clark is right that he can make a move here with ak knowing weaky will call down. at my current state of ability i would have folded that live against dynasty and would have been pretty sure i'd be shown QQ-AA or AK. of course i'd be upset one way or the other or happy but this play IS SO CLOSE that theres no way to be 100% either way.

THIS is the answer to your question: you can't know. you fold on the turn or you 3bet. if he CALLS your 3bet or 4bets you have to be ready to release. you've now indicated with your 3bet you will not release your overpair and are prepared to go the distance. if he calls/raises he is saying ok, well since you won't release i may as well get as many bets as possible from the mp weaky and you or increase the chance of you calling the river. you must then check and fold the river if no A or K hits. this i feel very confident about.

if you 3bet the turn, you check and fold the river as i just prescribed. if dynasty bets the river w/ AK after you check following your 3bet HE is making a mistake. he will NOT be called by the good player enough with a worse hand to make the bet profitable NOR will he release a good hand enough here to make a bluff profitable.

NOW, against a GREAT player, the river bet is more of an issue if it comes as it did, a blank. but the good player (as shown) won't lay down JJ.

sorry for the long post.
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

"one thing i did not fully take into account was the fact that he CALLED the checkraise. this eliminates TT in my mind no matter what people say"

You did notice Dynasty's 6 outs and the size of the pot didn't you? On top of that, he certainly has at least 2BBs worth of implied odds to boot. Folding TT on the flop would be bad poker.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Dynasty is likely thinking hero has a pair under aa or kk, as stated.

[/ QUOTE ]

From Dynasty's point of view there is a far wider range of hands that this guy could be playing than just pocket pairs, ok we know he's pocket jacks but he could have a hand like KQs and his check raise on the flop was to put pressure on dynasty's probable AKo(s). Hoping that it was dynasty who put in the flop bet so his raise could have a greater chance of forcing the middle player out. Dynasty (IMHO) doen't just need AKs and four flush to make this play, just AK, so I'm definately in the three bet camp.

[/ QUOTE ]

with respect to the c-r'ing to eliminate the mp weaky, i want to stand up and say, "WRONG." but since that is uncivilized and in poor taste i will say i strongly disagree with your point.

if i'm the good player, why in the world would i want to eliminate a player who may possibly insure that the better player with position won't get tricky (or AS tricky) when i have a hand like KQs like you say. i only want to make the weaky pay more when he's behind and if he has a 9 hes not behind KQs so c-ring here is, IMO, not a good idea without a pair.

further, KQs is NOT a hand i RAISE with preflop against dynasty here when he's behind me because i'd be aiming for a volume pot and drawing the weak players in. dynasty is not likely to cold call bets here to create that pot. he'll fold or likely 3bet. if i raise, the weaky cold calls and dynasty looks to his left and sees players loading up and i see him eyeing those players then i can put him on a wider range of hands if he cold calls. but either way KQs is not strong enoguh to raise with here.

the c-r by the good player indicates pair under AA, KK. i know this because i've been there. when you're playing in a game and have identified that there are great players behind you, you tighten up significantly up front with your raising hands. at least i do. maybe 3-7% of hands i raise with up front, and most of those are pairs (class wise, not bayesian wise.) thus, when the flop comes rags and i feel my hand is best, i'm going to c-r here b/c i expect the player to bet his ak as well as his other pairs. thats why the CALL on the flop by dynasty was the real good move here. it throws him off and elicited 2 big bets worth of calls by the THREAT of him being tricky.

but 3betting the turn is still right because you can then safely fold to the river when you're behind and not risk giving cheap cards to AKs or AKo. this is why great players' variance is higher than that of good players/decent players. and while you can say that 3betting and call/check calling costs the same, i say it doesn't. your cost is giving AKc or AKo a cheaper card when he does have those hands, as he will 16 times at most. it also reduces the need to call the river. if he bets that AK on the river after i 3bet with my jacks it is HE who is making the mistake by betting the river. not me. i know this because hed have to expect to be called by both players (but really just the good one, since the weaky could conceivably call with less than ak here) when he bets the river. the 3 bet in my mind, insures he can't bet the river without a better hand.

now i may be wrong as i'm not a great, or even very good player but that is how i feel right now.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

title of post: "the full treatment, i hope"

clarks point:

[ QUOTE ]
You did notice Dynasty's 6 outs and the size of the pot didn't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

barron's response:

"uhh, hmmm..."

barron's feeling:

like that student who forgets to differentiate ln x^2 in a string of differentiation by parts and trigonometric differentiations when the teacher marks the answer wrong after 45 mintues of work.

damn you clark.
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

"further, KQs is NOT a hand i RAISE with preflop against dynasty here when he's behind me "

When you have a single very tight player behind you who will only 3-bet or fold, you should be raising more hands, not less.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]

Although in the three bet camp myself, perhaps in the heat of the moment i would have folded, the reason being the game was lucrative with one other good player, i'm choosing not to get involved with him if i can help it but concentrate on the fishies.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe dynasty sees this and raises his nut no pair to get you out [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
if you 3bet the turn, you check and fold the river as i just prescribed. if dynasty bets the river w/ AK after you check following your 3bet HE is making a mistake. he will NOT be called by the good player enough with a worse hand to make the bet profitable NOR will he release a good hand enough here to make a bluff profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm wrong here. the reward for dynasty betting ak and me folding jacks is a quite large pot. the cost is one bet.

therefore i must call.

similarly, i think that while this is a great example and fantastic thread, since its so close we could just choose to do it at random.

in fact, i'd just look at my cellphone as if i had a call that needed silencing (i dont wear a watch), check the time and say if the calling set is in {0,1,2,3,4} and the time is xx:x5 i lay it down on the turn to the raise. HERE is where you can lay it down because its 9:1 vs. 8:1 ....so close that randomness works...or you can just add another number to the calling/folding set.

-Barron

[Inthacup]

What I think many people in here are missing is that #2 is the key factor here


ok. #2 seems rather obvious given the action. #3 seems like the key factor to me. This thread's pretty long and maybe I missed it, but you thing #2 is more important than #3?



Cup

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
"further, KQs is NOT a hand i RAISE with preflop against dynasty here when he's behind me "

When you have a single very tight player behind you who will only 3-bet or fold, you should be raising more hands, not less.

[/ QUOTE ]

true again. eventually i'll say something right...just gotta keep at it. but thank you for taking the time to correct these mistakes as i'll get it...and when i do, better watch out [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] lol. but for now if i see you, coilean, dynasty et al. taking up 4-5 seats in a game, you can be SURE that is NOT a game i'll be joining...unless its 4-8 in which case i'd saddle up. then straddle up and let loooooose [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] which would drive players out of the game shaking there heads in confusion.

the point i was getting at is that i don't feel comfortable with a great player behind me and would tighten up. but thats wrong because hes so tight that a call might get him to call behind the weak player with a hand that i'd rather him fold when i raise just to get him out of the pot (since if his hand is worse than mine and he'd be taking the worst of it now to get the best of it later).

-Barron