510 BB downswing

[Ezcheeze]

I decided to run some numbers on this. Assuming you are 4-tabling ring games I estimate that you get about 240 hands an hour. Over 9 days at 8 hours a day this is 16,800 hands. Assuming the following win rates in BB/100 and a SD of 18B/100 I get the following probabilities of going on a streak this bad or worse over a random set of 16800 hands:

.5BB/100:
Prob=1/184

1BB/100:
Prob= 1/536

1.5BB/100:
Prob= 1/1834

2BB/100:
Prob= 1/6952


Not trying to take a stab at you here David. I'm just trying to look at this objectively, do what you will with the numbers.

-Ezcheeze

[ActionBob]

Not quite 250 yet, but I'm certainly on track so add me to the list [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-ActionBob

[csuf_gambler]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't have believed it was possible, but I'm down $15,300 in the last 9 days. TO really make the story great I cashed out 20K last wednesday, and started losing right away.It hasn't stopped. I've actually run out of money in my Empire account. I transferred 3K from Party last night, then lost it tonight. I'm faced with the humiliating task of cashing in my savings on Monday to reload.

Anyone else ever had a swing this bad? I've only had 2 losing weeks in a year, this is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]


sh1t dawg I didn't realize 510BB downswings were possible for a winning player. I thought that was the reasoning behind the "you should have 300BB" rule. I was under the assumption that a winning player would never have a downswing over 300BB.

[Schneids]

I was losing like a mega-donkey last week and was ready to add myself to the list of losing Party players, but tonight I won 100BB's in 1000 hands so I'm thinking all is still well in Party-land [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Rudbaeck]

[ QUOTE ]
sh1t dawg I didn't realize 510BB downswings were possible for a winning player. I thought that was the reasoning behind the "you should have 300BB" rule. I was under the assumption that a winning player would never have a downswing over 300BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Winning player in that actually means 'a massively winning player with low swings'.

BruceZ gave a very good formula for calculating the bankroll you need based on your numbers in this thread about bankroll.

[bonanz]

[ QUOTE ]
This is going to sound ridiculous, but I thought that I would point it out.

My two biggest downswings and longest plateau have come since I started using Playerview. I'm starting to think that I might be "Einsteining" the hands too much based on the Playerview stats.

How many of you have experienced your worst results since using Playerview?

[/ QUOTE ]

I had this thought in the back of my head too, but readily dismissed it... i actually think i may have had better reads when i didnt use it.

Now it almost seems like I pay less attention or can't give certain stats credit for hands etc... although its excellent for table averages etc and realizing quickly when your table gets bad, but i think it may be affecting me negatively during a hand sometimes, I was planning on running without it for a while to see how it feels

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]

Are you speaking from experience or are you just talking out of your ass?

[/ QUOTE ]

You even need to ask?

[Fabian]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
last 9 days

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF, you guys are making me (even more) paranoid. After a very good start to the month, I have not had a winning day in the last 9 days exactly, and am down about 200BB. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

There is no way the games got any tougher that fast. If anything I am seeing more moronic call downs and suck outs than ever. (this is at 3/6 and 5/10)

[/ QUOTE ]

The interesting thing is this has happened to me too the last week or 10 days. No winning days. Just down 140BB though because I haven't played that much. Lucky me.

[Beavis68]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont care what it equals in dollars per hour, unless maybe you are playing 1000/2000 it is a very marginal win rate and would only take a slight variation to make you a losing player.

Are you speaking from experience or are you just talking out of your ass?

Because clearly it's better to win at 3BB/100 than it is to win at 2 or 1, but the fact of the matter is, you can make a living wage playing 20 hours of 2BB/100 8-table 3/6 per week.

To make 1.5 BB/100 at 15/30 is significantly better, and, given the ever larger number of multitabling good players at every limit, perhaps a goal that some of us could reasonably aspire to.

[/ QUOTE ]

You aren't even arguing the point.

[TimM]

More paranoia: I have not been able to win since I started getting rakeback, to the day.



All full games, no 6-max
AUG+SEP: 10 days of Party 3/6, then the rest Party 5/10
OCT: All Party 10/20
NOV: 2 days Empire 15/30, 6 days of Empire 10/20, rest Empire 5/10
DEC: 18 days Empire 5/10, then bonus whoring at Party and Stars 2/4
JAN: 28 days Empire 3/6, then 2 days Empire 5/10

I may do a month at Stars just for my sanity's sake. Winning &gt;&gt; Rakeback. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]