Chess Championship

[David Ottosen]

101 Victor Kramnik -0.5 Game -108
102 Peter Leko +0.5 Game -102

Here's what I will tell you (if you don't care to have any back story, I'll just say go to the bottom and there will be my pick).

Kramnik made his big debut playing for the Russian Olympiad team at Kasparov's insistence when he was 17, and backed it up with some ridiculously impressive score. Kasparov at all times had been quoted that Kramnik was his "likely successor", but Kramnik stumbled a few times (including a waxing at the hands of Shirov in a pseudo World Championship qualifying match). He eventually just got gifted the match against Kasparov and won it, in part due to Kasparov's insistence on trying to beat a drawish line of the Ruy Lopez.

Leko is also interesting; he broke the record for youngest Grandmaster ever and used that publicity to play with the "big boys" (the group of 6-10 super GMs at the very top) a few times, and was suitably crushed. After grinding it out for a few years, he made a breakthrough and moved up to that Super GM level himself.

Kramnik's results have been very uninspiring since winning this World Championship, while Leko has moved up to the super super GM level (which really includes only Kasparov, Kramnik, and Anand).

Both are very drawish players, very dull to watch many times. Both are known for being incredibly difficult to beat. As well, unless the rules of this match are unusual, the champion (Kramnik) will keep his title in the event of a tie. As such, I think there is incentive for Kramnik to tie.

Personally, I consider the match a toss up and would, presented these odds, put my money on Leko, no question for the following reasons:

1) Better value on Leko at 102
2) Likelihood of a tie and Kramnik's lack of incentive to win
3) Chess etiquette/tradition; say it enters the last game tied, and Leko needs the win to win the match; he goes all out and fails, getting a losing position. Chess "etiquette" will generally mean Kramnik offers a draw here anyways, and the match would end tied

Just my opinion.

[David Ottosen]

I posted the same question on a couple of our chess newgroups. Other than one Russian player who felt Kramnik would blow him out of the water, most players agreed that there was value in betting Leko. The three respondents I put most stock into were two masters and an International master; one of the masters said he didn't know, and the other two both felt Leko would be at worst a tiny underdog, and possibly the favorite.

[Clarkmeister]

Thanks David.

[David Ottosen]

I might add I would never bet on "Victor" Kramnik. Whoever that is, I'm sure he's not as good as the current World Champion Vladimir Kramnik [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[TimM]

Hey, I recognize you from ICC or FICS (can't remember which).

[David Ottosen]

I played both occasionally, but really only played on FICS very much.

[bigpooch]

I don't think there would be much value on either one of
these bets. The rating difference between Kramnik and Leko
is quite small and Kramnik may not have much incentive to
win the match. On the other hand, Kramnik did have a nice
win against Leko in a Sicilian Sveshnikov in this year's
Linares tournament and he does have more match experience
than Leko.

I think you may have the best of it betting on Kramnik, but
you shouldn't expect much of an edge.

[Cyrus]

(A match is series of games.)

- I don't know if you are allowed to "past post" and how many moved deep into a Chess game. But know this: in Chess, Bayesian rules are to be used very, very cautiously as they apply to the opening. Say, Kramnik has the edge over Leko by 11-7 (Kramnik has won 11 games and lost 7, in their lifetime meetings, with draws not counting). Say, also, that Kramnik has a 100% record against Leko when playing White and the opening is Opening Variation A. They have played some 4 games with that and Kramnik won them all. If in the game you are betting on, you see Leko as Black going into Opening Variation A, then you are NOT to assume that Kramnik now has some huge advantage. What you should assume is that Kramnik will probably face difficulties in the early stage of the game, at least, because Leko has some "opening surprise" in store, i.e. he would not go into A unprepared!

-- Specific conditions of the games to be played are more important than people realize and particularly the rules on time. Players gain (or lose) on their strength according to the time limitations. Look for older people to be more comfortable with extended time and young people the opposite. (Remember to make an exception for "eternal youths" such as Karpov, Korchnoi, and others, here.)

-- ELO ratings are not to be taken lightly. They provide a solid rating of a Chess player's strength. ELO is also very good (it is actually designed for that) in indicating what is the likely result of a match or a game. Google for how ELO is computed and what are the ELOs of the two heroes.

That's it for now.

[Clarkmeister]

Updated line for those who are interested. As Ottosen surmised, the money has come in on Leto:

101 Victor Kramnik -0.5 Game +103
102 Peter Leko +0.5 Game -113

[MMMMMM]

Any line on Kramnik retaining his title?