"A Pair of Fours" Again

[mike l.]

"Now from these posts, it seems like the flop and the turn are pretty much agreed upon, but the river check is in question."

it's fascinating isnt it? we're all about the river around here. it's a tricky street, but david downplays it as simple. so why are we all constantly going on about river value bets and checkraise bluffs, not just on this hand, but all the time? any thoughts mason? (i think it has something to do with a certain changing nature/texture of hold em games in the past 5 years).

[Rushmore]

I honestly think it comes from a generally greater overall confidence in skilled players' preflop, flop, and turn play.

In other words, many 2+2 types have gained so much confidence in their play on these streets (either justifiably or not), that the value bet on the river is now reasonably recognized as a rich source for the betterment of one's hourly win rate.

It used to be "become a consistent, winning player."

Now it's "maximize your win rate."

This is a good and healthy evolution.

Great thread.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Mike:

I think it has more to do with the fact that many posters on these forums do understand hold 'em fairly well. Most players when they start put way too much emphasis on the first two cards. The better and more experienced players realize that once you play the first round fairly well, it's the later streets where the real profit is.

Best wishes,
Mason

[SoBeDude]

We all know holdem poker has changed much over the years.
Players have become more sophisticated as the body of knowlegde continues to grow and become refined.

This is caused by the better texts available, and of course, sites like this.

I find it fascinating that these changes are underscored by how the conversation on this one hand has evolved over time.

-Scott

[astroglide]

the fact that the only remaining debate is a value bet is a testament to how far poker theory has come, at least around here. fwiw i would have played it the same.

[brad]

ok im not making this up but i read masons post (read the book long time ago) and first thing i thought is maybe need to bet on the end (aginst typical play\er who wont check rasie bluff like almost no one does).

scary. i thought i would be only one to comment on river. heh.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Brad:

Given the size of the pot, you only need to get check raised bluffed every now and then, assuming you fold to the raise, for that to be a big problem. So you need to be pretty sure that you will absolutely not be checked raised bluffed.

Best wishes,
Mason

[brad]

yeah about the check raise bluff but it just seems to me the chance of folding out Fives or Sixes much bigger than getting check raise bluffed but maybe in bellagio 30/60 players check raise bluff i dont know.

[brad]

change positions and have single opponent acting after you on the river and i think its a clear check as many opponents will think to bluff raise and do it.

but it just seems they dont check raise do it. probably just me and my limited locale experience.

[Lawrence Ng]

Hi Mason,

I agree with your mode of thought here.

On the flop, our implied odds are very good provided if you are trying to draw to a set that is live an there isn't a pocket 8's or pocket 9's out there.

The turn bet is a must because the original preflop raiser didn't raise on the flop with his overcards and everyone else just called giving you extremely valuable information that they were all drawing. Most likely someone probably had an 8 in their hand and folded, and almost assurely no one had a 9.

River check is good because you can only be called if your beat or remotely check-raised bluffed.

I like to add a comment to the turn bet. It's a good one too because you have good position, information that everyone else could be drawing and your bet forces others out. As well the pot is definitely worth of a big bet on the turn should your hand indeed stand up.

But all the guess work aside, I think many people fail to underestimate the importance of implied odds when it matters. As such is the case with Mason's hand he is getting 19-1 on the flop provided the raiser does not raise and like Mason mentioned even if the button does raise Mason still has a good chance of being the best hand on the flop.

But if Mason makes the set on the turn he will most likely get paid off greater than the 22-1 odds he needs to make the hand worthy.

My only question is know that their are so many callers out in the field and knowing that most likely a diamond and/or straight draw is possible, would it be as wise to draw for a set if many other hands could redraw out on your set.

Thanks.