Friday Special: Double Draw, Call This Push?

[Degen]

No read other than that he is a short stack. Please ignore my PF play, this is table dependant.


***** Hand History for Game 3289097237 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:18750975 Level:4 Blinds (25/50) - Friday, December 30, 23:16:43 ET 2005
Table Friday Special(554660) Table #22 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 3: whynot___ ( $1125 )
Seat 4: DegenFarang ( $2582 )
Seat 9: bigjim ( $4478 )
Seat 6: superultra ( $638 )
Seat 10: Sharky711 ( $2297 )
Seat 8: downswing23 ( $6465 )
Seat 1: vancerod ( $817 )
Seat 2: Unclewrg ( $1785 )
Seat 7: chinxu ( $4753 )
Trny:18750975 Level:4
Blinds (25/50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to DegenFarang [ 8d Qd ]
whynot___ calls [50].
DegenFarang calls [50].
superultra folds.
chinxu folds.
downswing23 folds.
bigjim folds.
Sharky711 calls [50].
vancerod calls [25].
Unclewrg checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ad, Kd, Js ]
vancerod is all-In [767]
jonthegreek3 has joined the table.
Player jonthegreek3 has been moved from table 60 to this table
Unclewrg will be using his time bank for this hand.
Unclewrg folds.
whynot___ folds.
DegenFarang ????


I am getting proper odds to call, but what would you do?

[Lloyd]

I don't think you're getting proper odds. If anything, it's a neutral decision. You're getting 1.33 to 1 odds on the call. With 12 outs you're about a 1.4 to 1 dog. So it's not a horribly -EV call but I do think it's slightly EV unless you're putting him on a draw as well and I highly doubt that. So I would fold. Even if it were a neutral decision I'd fold as calling would be increasing your variance with no reward.

[Degen]

53.1 to 46.9 if he has a one pair no draw hand (1.13:1)
60.9 to 39.1 if he has top and bottom pair with no draws
Worse with a set.

I'd think the most likely hand here is a naked ace. No? In that case its a call with a slight edge and we're supposed to be taking those early on right? (I am not the best player in this tournament, so according to the anthology...I call right there.)

Anybody else think its a fold?

[Lloyd]

I think he could have top pair, two pair, pair and a draw, etc. Something like AJ-A2 (with decreased chances the lower you go), KQ-KJ, maybe JJ. At best you're 56/44 making this very slightly EV.

I understand what the Anthology says about not passing up small edges early, and I agree with it 100%. The question is whether or not you have an edge that would even be classified as "small" (versus negligible) and should you call just for the sake of variance.

Having a background in securities portfolio management I always knew that you should be seeking to maximize return while minimizing variance. Variance was bad. I think there are times in poker when variance is fine but they have to do more with meta-game issues which usually aren't present in the first few rounds of a tournament.

So I don't think a call is absolutely horrible or anything. I think it's a marginal situation and if you feel like you need to take risk (without the compensatory reward) to go deep in the tournament then by all means this is a great spot. After all if you lose you're stack is still relatively healthy.

[MLG]

ok. I almost never say this but....what in the world are you doing playing this preflop?