|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
Well, first of all I'm half asleep and misread the HH. I thought CO pushed. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] That's ok, I thought he minraised. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] [ QUOTE ] However, I still think your range for CO is too large given the big stack in the SB. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe right. [ QUOTE ] CO has a hand that he likes against the small stack and I doubt it is T8s. Estimating how often the BB calls is of course a guess at best in a 22. [/ QUOTE ] All true. Seems like a reasonably close decision, all said. eastbay |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
I would call here, not push, just flat call.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
If you just call, and BB calls:
The pot will be $2,185. The CO will be getting great pot odds on his hand when you push in your remaining $395 post-flop. If the flop comes K 9 4 rainbow can you fold to a bet from CO? If you fold, you have $395 remaining. If CO wins and BB is out, you're ITM but almost definitely 3rd. If you fold, CO loses, now you're the short stack, and almost done with only $395. If you call his bet (or he calls yours), you're getting 4.5:1 pot odds and you probably have the best hand. Just push pre-flop or fold. (I'd push). If you and BB call, you have to push post-flop. Even if CO calls and beats you, you're something like 75% versus BB's random hand, so you'll still get third. So just push. If you call and BB folds, then I could see folding post-flop to survive, but I still couldn't based on the pot odds I'm getting, and the fact that I'm probably the in the lead anyway. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride. |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride. [/ QUOTE ] For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push. |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] btw I think calling is probably the best, but you basically cant fold on the flop, its mainly just to encourage the BB to come along for the ride. [/ QUOTE ] For sure. I call knowing I'm going to the felt either way, but knowing that a call is more likely to tempt the BB into coming along than if I push. [/ QUOTE ] On the flip side, if you push, there is a chance that the CO will fold. I'd guess that the BB is more likely to push in his remaining 130 chips with the blinds at 75/150 than CO would be to call the all-in. |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.
Hint: He ain't folding. Ever. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then. Hint: He ain't folding. Ever. [/ QUOTE ] You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds. -So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO. -Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold. -Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance (edit: my estimate is 25%, given this is a $22) the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster. Thanks for the "hint". |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
[ QUOTE ]
I would call here, not push, just flat call. [/ QUOTE ] This is correct to me. Also, its pretty easy to see why SNGPT says this is -EV. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: SNGPT says it\'s negEV....
Yeah, call. If you push and BB folds you will make this face. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
If you get it all in on a good flop BB has to beat both of you to get you out in 4th. |
|
|