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#1
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Preflop is fine.
Check/Fold the flop. You really only want to see a 6 on the turn and paying 1/4 to 1/5 to see one is certainly -EV. If you believe everyone is weak and will likely fold, you could go for a bluff check/raise and try to represent K-K-x-x. At least this way you stand a better chance of winning than simply calling OOP. If you meet any resistance though, you are likely go to have to give up on the turn. As played, check/fold the turn. You have bottom two pair with a straight on the board facing a pot sized bet OOP and terrible redraw prospects. Fold, Fold, Fold. The reason this hand should be bugging you is because you played it poorly after the flop. Learn and move on. If you are going to take a card off, it is generally much better to do so in position than out of position. You could have fired the turn as a bluff that you had made the straight, but with 3 to act behind you, this is going to be extremely foolish most of the time. |
#2
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Thanks for the insight, guys. My thought process on the flop was that it was a fairly dry board: no flush draws, and just a couple of gutshots. I was first to act and checked, so I figured if anyone had a big hand they'd either bet it themselves, or look to wait until the turn. I would have folded to a 1/2-pot sized bet, but I felt the low possibility of a raise in conjunction with a decent draw that will get paid if I hit merited a flop peel.
Thanks again, Steve |
#3
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[ QUOTE ]
but I felt the low possibility of a raise in conjunction with a decent draw that will get paid if I hit merited a flop peel. [/ QUOTE ] Drawing to longshots can be ok if the circumstances are right. You either need to be priced in (which is unlikely to occur in a pot-limit format) OR You need to have the correct implied odds. Where some people get hung up is with the whole idea of implied odds. If you are drawing to a long-shot, you don't want to be drawing to something like a simple gutshot straight draw. First of all, unless your opponents are morons, they will see the straight and may freeze up, limiting your potential profit and killing your implied odds. Secondly, your hand could be counterfieted on the river when the last card brings a better straight, flush, full house, etc. Remember, you want your opponent thinking that he has the best hand and go with you to showdown. I've seen many players hit their 3 out gutshots on the turn after calling down a pot-sized bet on the flop, only to start whining horribly when they lose to a 7 high flush on the river. This is why, when you are looking for implied odds, drawing to straight flushes, overfulls or quads is better. When you hit such hands, you are likely to stack your opponent when they can't get rid of their Ace high flush, overfull or counterfieted underfull. The only way that drawing to long-shots is not -EV long-term is to ensure that you have the appropriate implied odds every time. Thus, when you hit that 1/20 draw, you can make up for the 19 times that you missed. |
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