How Many Suckouts Do You Make In Your Tourney Wins?

[illegit]

In my big wins I always had a few suckouts along the way, but I think another key factor is that when i did suckout I was rarely in for MY tournament life when it happened. Like if some nit finally pushes w/ AA from the button on a stack of 3 BBs, and I call from the BB on a monster stack w/ 54s and crack AA I don't really think it should even be considered a suckout.

[Sam T.]

I agree with that the different kinds of luck are key. We don't usually think of doubling or tripling up with AA or KK as getting lucky, but it is extremely lucky that some donk decided to go to felt with 99 or AJ pre-flop, or that you hit your set when someone else hit TPTK. Once you get the big stack, you can survive the inevitable come-from-ahead losses when your AK gets cracked by shorty's A7, so your "bad luck" doesn't end your tournament the way it would if you had a medium stack.

That said, with a couple of exceptions, in every largeish tournament that I've FTed, I've had to hit my 2- or 3-outer at least once, but usually twice.

[woodguy]

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: How Many Suckouts Do You Make In Your Tourney Wins?

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All of them.

Regards,
Woodguy

[winky51]

If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.

.75 x .75 x .75 x .75 = 0.3164%~

that's all I'm saying. I'd rather level out the luck with winning smaller pots 90% of the time and losing 10%. Rather than getting it in with the best hand thats 75% ahead 4 times in a row. The 2 high standard deviations of fish that call you here will eventually beat you in that race. This is in low level $200 tournaments where most of the field are fish. There will be more fish with larger stacks than good player swith large stacks.. So I always have 2-3 larger stacks at my table with 2 of them loose and in the "gambling mood".

[winky51]

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Oh ya, #4)stealing the blinds, and not running into AA!!

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Very very important. I love stealing blinds. I think I make more money that way.

[adanthar]

Very few. I don't think I've ever had over 2 real suckouts while winning a tourney and in the 100K win my worst all in was 46/54.

Every time I have > 3 suckouts along the way in a single tournament, I'm either in some unavoidable spots (KK vs. AA, combo draw vs. set with shallow stacks, etc.) or not playing my A game/probably not playing my B game.

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If you go all in 4x in a row with a 75% chance to win.. then you only win all 4 31% of the time.



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this makes no sense.

but sadly, I understand what you mean.

does that make sense?

you are using a control group of 4 rather than an absolute of 4. i get it. 100 sets of 4 allins equals 31 of those sets you will win all 4 allins. originally it sounded as if you were talking about ONLY 4 allins. this was worded poorly, i hope you see why i was confuzzled.

[winky51]

np man. I was confused too when I kept pushing with the best hand and losing tournaments.

"How can I lose I went in with the best hand!?!?!?!"

Now I know and I do much better now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Annulus]

Sucking out while making +EV decisions is normal and all tourney players do this, some very often. Sucking out making -EV decisions is a major leak.

Just 1. The last hand of a 350 person tourney on Pokerroom. I had A3c, other guy had 33 (had a 2.5 - 1 chip lead by this time). Flopped an A to win. Other marginal hands: AJc against 55 on a board of Tc 9s 9c. rivered a club.
A3s against 33 on a board of 6s 4s 2h. riverd an Ace. Other than that, always got my money in with the best of it.