But I Have Trip Aces!

7ontheline · #1 12-28-2005, 03:32 AM

Opponent here is a pretty tough TAG, 28/21/2 with a tendency to fight for pots. Has shown that he won't really be bullied out of pots. Anyway, crtitiques on all postflop streets appreciated. I'll post my thoughts as I was playing a little later.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

River: (8.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB

Lmn55d · #2 12-28-2005, 03:41 AM

I like your flop and turn play. If the turn didn't pair the ace I would just call again, but since it did a couple things happen:

1) It is 50% less likely he holds an ace.
2) If villain does not hold an ace, he knows it is 33% less likely that you hold an ace and will call down more often once the ace pairs.

What was your play if he 3bet the turn?

The river I'm not so sure about. I can't really see what hand he is betting out. I don't think it's too likely that he has a KQ/KJ hand, although KdXd is possible. With those hands, he might be trying to prevent you from checking through with 9x or 2x.

It seems that a lot of time he is either gonna be bet/3betting or bet/folding, with bet/3betting being way more likely. To tell you the truth, his play looks a lot like KK or possibly AK/AQ that just didn't want you to fold on the turn if you were bluffing or free showdown raising.

So I call the river. Since you raised, I think you need to fold to the 3bet if he is reasonable.

7ontheline · #3 12-28-2005, 03:47 AM

I was thinking the exact same thing.

Flop - hit my ace, call down.

Turn - Hit 2 aces, he probably doesn't have one - Raise! Plus, he might not believe that I have an ace and look me up.

River - Looks like a semiweak river lead, I'll raise and hope to get paid off, fold to a 3-bet.

River is really what I have questions about. Do you think he's bet/folding enough so that my raise isn't worth it since I'm smoked if I get 3-bet?

Lmn55d · #4 12-28-2005, 03:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think he's bet/folding enough so that my raise isn't worth it since I'm smoked if I get 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think he has you completely owned enough that you'd much rather put in 1 bet than 2.

Alex/Mugaaz · #5 12-28-2005, 03:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you think he's bet/folding enough so that my raise isn't worth it since I'm smoked if I get 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think he has you completely owned enough that you'd much rather put in 1 bet than 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

Completely agree

7ontheline · #6 12-28-2005, 03:52 AM

Sigh. Good hand reading - He had AQ and I was boned. I'm working my way out of my first 300 BB downswing so I'm trying to question everything more closely these days, even things that ought to be more standard.

aLOWdAkING · #7 12-28-2005, 06:26 AM

Nice analysis. This woulda been an easy river raise for me, but aafter reading the reasoning I'll have to look more closely into situations like these. Thanks!

StellarWind · #8 12-28-2005, 05:17 PM

Put yourself in his shoes. Did you make your trips perfectly clear on the turn? I think you did and I think he is a good enough player to get it. Any Villain hand that loses to an ace should be in crying call mode right now. Therefore when he comes back with a river bet I'm crying. A sensible player is looking at Villain's hand and he says I'm beat. I'll call because this may be a trick or I may have a chop, but raising isn't on my radar screen.

PS: That scream you hear is your kicker dying. That plus the KK angle makes this quite a bad river card for you. Another reason why you should be pulling back, not raising.

7ontheline · #9 12-28-2005, 05:39 PM

Certainly I now agree that the river raise was bad. Do you think he automatically puts me on trips when I raise the turn? You see this kind of bluff-raise moderately frequently at 10/20 (although not by me too often I guess). I guess he could be trying to deny a free showdown raise also.