First Post -Right Push?

Live home game. 50 players, $60 entry down to two tables, 20 players left, 14 ITM. BB200. villian is new to the monthly game, seems to be a decent player, not much of a read on him. delt AKo in EP i raise 500, folded to button, villian, who re-raises 1000. folded back to hero. i push. villian has me covered, both around 4000. bad push? thoughts.

[DWarrior]

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bad push?

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No

Both around 4000 after the raises? I don't like a push here. You are getting called by hands that you lose to way to often. I call the raise then fire out on the flop no matter what. I think this gives you the best chance to take down some chips without risking your entire stack. You are not quite desperate yet. This might be a bit weak tight, but thats how I would play it.

i thought of that after i was ai tks

[SossMan]

I think a push is pretty standard here.

[ZBTHorton]

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I think a push is pretty standard here.

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[DWarrior]

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Live home game. 50 players, $60 entry down to two tables, 20 players left, 14 ITM.

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isn't that a bit flat, I'd have paid top 5 or 6.

can you explain your reasoning why the push is standard here?

Put him on a range of hands that he'll raise to 1000 with. Let's say AQ+, TT+.

The possible hand combinations are:
AQ 12 combinations (3 aces left times 4 queens)
AK 9 combinations (3 aces left times 3 kings left)
TT 6 (4 * 3 / 2)
JJ 6
QQ 6
KK 3 (3 * 2 / 2)
AA 3

That's 45 hand combinations of hands he'll raise to 1000 with.

Let's say pushing will get him to fold AQ and TT. Maybe JJ. Let's say he folds JJ half the time. That's 21/45 he folds.

When he calls with JJ-QQ (9/45) you're about 45% to win.
When he calls with AK (9/45) you chop.
When he calls with KK (3/45) you're about 30% to win.
When he calls with AA (3/45) you're about 7% to win.

So it's clearly +EV to push. Almost half the time he'll fold. When he calls you're in a race/chop situation 75% of the time (18/24). It's only in 6 out of 45 hands that you're in trouble. And only when he has aces (3/45) are you almost certain to lose the hand.

Your calculations seem fine except I don't think its accurate to say that he will fold TT all the time and JJ half the time. Most players will call with these no matter what. Thanks for the insight.