20/40 top set

[mgsimpleton]

this is what peolpe are missing here, i think... what can he have here besides top two (unlikely), AQ (also unlikely), a set (which is unlikely given action but he sticks it in anyway) or a big draw. i think if he bluffs enough a check is the best way to go but like everyone said, what are the chances he's going to try to bluff you here? he seems like a calling station so when he checks behind AQ you will want to kill yourself.

a lot of times in these spots i like a weak lead for value/induce a bluff but here the stacks don't permit it. if you're going to let him bluff it needs to be all in for whatever you have left, or else he gets way too scared about no fold equity, if he isnt already. so i think weak leading is the worst here. given the board though and the unlikeliness of him having a strong made hand, i am inclined to check... but this one comes down to a read of if he is a river bluffer or not.

oh, i just thought of something. another option is not just a weak lead, like a joke of a lead. like 700... he can't feel comfortable calling with a missed draw and you don't let him check behind (which many players with like KT will do and just pray you had T9) so he might be tempted into raising. but i feel like this ridic weak lead is so obvious that he'd have to be really really really dumb. so in sum, i like a check here.

[DcifrThs]

u think its possible given the villian's image of hero that villian would call flop w/ 77 and then is a bit scared to push after the 3k bet into a 1700 pot?

then on the river he plans to raise a blocking bet maybe or just call whatever.

if 77 could be in his range, id bet

Barron