odds of happening

[AaronBrown]

It's hard to figure this because there are so many different ways of it happening, and it depends so crucially on how you and the table play.

For example, it makes a big difference if you hold two different cards and match them both on a flop with no pairs in it, versus holding a pair and the flop containing a second pair.

Also, are all these losses at showdown, or are you counting some when you folded?

Just taking the second part, it doesn't seem that unlikely to me. To win with two pair in a showdown against a pair of Jacks or lower is going to be pretty rare. How often is a pair of Jacks or lower going to be the second-best hand, and how often will it go to showdown?