Lock it in now: KC -7 vs Cinci (or tease with Bucs -6.5 or Pitt -7)

[jedinite]

This line is dramatically on the move, and is going to get even bigger.

KC has many many reasons to win this game, including the ability to sneak in to the playoffs if Pittsburgh loses against Detroit, desire to win for their (probably outbound) head coach, desire to give the fans a win when they're likely not headed to the playoffs, etc etc.

Cinci, on the other hand, while they technically could be playing for the #3 seed, there are a lot of reasons why it would be better for them to lose this game (including a more favorable matchup against Jacksonville, instead of having to play the much superior Steelers in a grudge match, and of course the ability to rest their starters in this game).

I couldn't post anything here until the line started to shoot up, as I didn't want to price myself out, but I'm locked in already with as much as i'm going to.

I would not be surprised to see this line end at -14 once more formal announcements are made that Cinci is sitting starters, which should allow for some significant arbitrage levels if you can move both sides of the line to your advantage.

If you don't like the KC -7, put them in a teaser with the Bucs (so KC PK Bucs -6.5) or another must-win team (teasing Pitt to -7 would probably be my second choice).

[playersare]

where is this crazy movement you see? it opened 7 and is still 7 with minimal juice changing hands so far. this game is MINIMALLY shading towards the chiefs and most books aren't even taking bets on this matchup yet.

I hope you got some Lions +17 and Packers -3-105 while you were analyzing this one.

[jedinite]

I showed it opening at KC -2 and bouncing to -7. If I've been given incorrect info, I apologize.

I did see Detroit +17, but I don't think I'd play even Detroit +21 against the Steelers in a must-win, with the Steelers outscoring their opponents 80-12 in their last three games - against better opponents than Detroit.

[CCx]

where did you see it open at -2?

[jedinite]

It was fed in to my tracker at KC -2 but I can't chase down the source from here. The only thing I've been able to find manually is that Sheridan set KC -2 but I don't know of any casino that opened it. But its possible that someone in Vegas had the lines up early based on Sheridan's odds and that was my starting source. I can't say for sure right now, but that's what triggered my "wow this line is really on the move" thinking.

I first saw it on Pinnacle at -7 -104, which is what I placed at. Its already been spotted two places at -8 -105 or worse, and Pinnacle has -7 -108 which is the best I can currently find among the books currently carrying it.

So if it did in fact open at -7 everywhere, the movement hasn't been huge yet. But that's a good thing. This line is going to move.

[jedinite]

I'll add that I _really_ like this teased to KC PK and Tampa -6.5. Pitt -7 also has good value here as they're also in a need-to-win game. If the KC line heads north of -7, I especially like the tease to bring it back down if you can still get Pitt -7 or Tampa -6.5 at that time.

I added the teaser detail to the parent post, but I know a lot of people could miss that its been edited if they've already read it prior, so I figured I'd post it specifically.

[jedinite]

One more bit of detail: Larry Johnson can break Priest Holmes' single season franchise rushing record (yards, but not TDs) and can do so having started only eight games. I think KC will be in a massive push to do so, both for the franchise/fans and so that there won't be so much backlash next year when they trade Priest.