Curtains Hand #1

[ravensfan]

Thanks Curtains, this is great analysis and very helpful!

Just out of curiousity: if you bet say 1/2 pot on the flop, what percentage of the time does the average villian fold/call/raise? And, how often does a very tight villian who called this bet react? I'm guessing that since they'd rarely defend this early in the tourney, you figured there was at least an outside chance (i dunno 25%-30%) that they had an overpair and therefore well worth your while (implied odds) to wait for one of your 5 outs for free?

[curtains]

I didnt consider for a second that my opponent might have an overpair actually [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Most normal people would reraise there. I dont think my opponent would have gotten too out of line if I bet the flop. Im not saying my play was correct, but those were just some thought processes behind it, which when used in the right situations can be valuable.

Another note...I know that its possible my opponent may lurk here along with some other regulars. For this reason I am always analyzing their play very closely to see if I think they may be trying to make plays on me based on information posted on 2+2. I was actually getting such a sense about my opponent in this hand, but it later dissapated after finishing the remainder of my events with them. In any case, after the preflop call, I thought there was a chance they read one of my earlier posts that mention how I will raise some tight players in this spot quite often. When they turned over JJ I realized that it likely wasn't because of this post that they decided not to fold their hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ravensfan]

Hey Curtains, thanks for the response.

OK, if they felt that reraising say, 9s or 10s (or h@ll, even Js [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ), would lead to an coin-flip all-in battle, would pushing still be a normal play this early? ie. maybe they didn't want to have to fold a good pair with position this early if you pushed, and wouldnt be comfortable calling? I guess i'm wondering if playing one of these pairs with position early in the tourney for set/overpair value would be better than ending the hand? Who knows, maybe he read you as aggressive either from your general posts here, or from your play that tourney, and figured it would be a good spot to trap you? Fwiw, i'm kind of trappy and my instinct is to trap these spots like the villian did. Do you think this is a leak? (i still play the 800 chip tourneys though)

I can definitely see how there'd be some more information to consider with these extra posts you're adding? Theoretically, i suppose it can help your game?!

[curtains]

The by far normal play for my opponent wolud be to reraise with 99 or TT. Flat calling is very abnormal.