AK flop decision - 20/40

[private joker]

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With this read this flop is an easy check/raise, I can't imagine how so many players want to bet out.

When I read a post I assume the reads provided are correct, so while check/raising in this situation is wrong in general, it's obviously correct if we're confident TP will bet. If we bet and TP calls BB will be correct to call with any piece of the board (gut-shot, middle or bottom pair), while check/raising him will trap him for a big mistake.

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I really disagree with this, Nick. Each time BB called, he had to call 1 bet, and was correct to do so. By betting out, TP might raise and that would charge BB two. Then his call would be a mistake. But because of OP's checkraise, BB was getting proper odds to overcall the flop then call the raise.

I'm not saying TP would have raised -- he likely would not -- but by trapping BB, all the OP is doing is keeping him in the pot with odds to draw, not getting him out or causing him to make a mathematical mistake by calling.

[Nick Royale]

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I really disagree with this, Nick. Each time BB called, he had to call 1 bet, and was correct to do so. By betting out, TP might raise and that would charge BB two. Then his call would be a mistake. But because of OP's checkraise, BB was getting proper odds to overcall the flop then call the raise.

I'm not saying TP would have raised -- he likely would not -- but by trapping BB, all the OP is doing is keeping him in the pot with odds to draw, not getting him out or causing him to make a mathematical mistake by calling.

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I'm not trying to be a dick here, but this shows big flaws in your mathematical thinking. You should look at the odds he's actually getting to see the turn card (his first call is no good since it gets him no new card). The odds he got on the flop was 10.5:2, certainly not a good call for a gutshot. Thus he was making a pretty big mistake.

You can always argue betting out would be better and I agree the vast majority of the time betting out is better. You have to be very confident that the player behind will bet here for check/raising to be correct, but it seemed to me OP was.

[Pharity]

This is totally wrong and very basic. You really need to read TOP, i've seen you write these things time and time again. No offense.

[private joker]

You guys need to realize the advanced level of fuzzy math I perform at the table. BB was actually getting 2.6:Cheney to call, which is more than enough considering his implied Gore odds. Fuzzy math rules. But it probably explains my downswing...

[Luv2DriveTT]

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This is totally wrong and very basic. You really need to read TOP, i've seen you write these things time and time again. No offense.

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With your thinking the correct play then shouldn't be to check-raise the flop, it should be to check-call the flop and bet the turn - keeping the size of the pot small so anyone who plays with a 4 outer is playing incorrectly.

Considering the action and the tight player who is likely to hold an A or a middle pair, the best results on the flop would be to bet while welcoming the possibility of a raise from the second to act player. Thats how it is best to protect his hand.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[DMBFan23]

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This is totally wrong and very basic. You really need to read TOP, i've seen you write these things time and time again. No offense.

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good post, I was lost before but now I get it

P.S. sorry nothing personal I'm having a [censored] day.

[DMBFan23]

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I really disagree with this, Nick. Each time BB called, he had to call 1 bet, and was correct to do so. By betting out, TP might raise and that would charge BB two. Then his call would be a mistake. But because of OP's checkraise, BB was getting proper odds to overcall the flop then call the raise.

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this is a misconception IMO.

we factor this into our EV when we are going to call - it might get raised behind us, or if we're gonna call two cold, the original bettor might three bet etc. it cuts into our actual odds. if BB puts in two bets (which we know will happen, but he doesn't) then he made a mistake calling the first time even though he didn't know it.

functionally (from the perspective of the amount of bets going in), it's no different than us bet-calling and BB calling the two cold, if we assume he'd have the same range in both cases - which of course isnt the case.

since this isn't true in most cases, we should like to checkraise if he'll call multiple bets one at a time, trapping hands for multiple bets when they actually don't have odds. if in fact his putting two bets in on the flop is incorrect, we should take whatever action gets him to do that (and make a mistake). if it's correct, then we should take whatever action would get him to fold (and make a mistake). if that's checkraising or betting or whatever, yeah.