AKs Flop Laydown

[Nick C]

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What about reverse implied odds? It will cost me 2.5 BB to see this river. Even if villain is on a play or draw will I be good enough of the time to warrant a call down.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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Reverse implied odds are a factor. But you do get to see what falls on the turn before making a decision on that street. If the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, for instance, I'm thinking it would be good to give up and fold.

[JacksonTens]

You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Nick C]

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You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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I don't like the flop fold, but I can make a case for it. Here it is:

Villain's 4-bet reduces the possibility of a big draw. I don't think the 4-bet eliminates the possibility, but let's imagine that it does.

That leaves KJ and 66. With KJs, Villain might've raised preflop. And KJo is only 7 combos, while 66 is 3 combos. You're getting an immediate 19:1, but spiking an ace will only give you a redraw, 30 percent of the time (if we can narrow Villain's holdings to KJo/66). You are drawing very badly, if Villain has 66.

In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

[Nick Royale]

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And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

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I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold?

[Nick C]

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And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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Ah, jeez, you're right. I did the combos wrong. (I forgot about the king in our hand when I was figuring the combos.)

Well, 66 starts looking more likely now than I thought it was. And this becomes more true if we need to discount KJo, like you've said you want to. (Personally, I don't think we need to discount it too much. I suspect a lot of TAGs will overlimp KJo from MP1 in a live game.)

But, while 66 gains in likelihood versus KJ when we replace my incorrect combos with the correct ones, the possibility that we're up against a big draw also goes up.

In any case, I agree with you that we should not fold the flop.

[Nick C]

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And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

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I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold?

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If we get checked to, a bet-fold sounds good to me.

I'm not going to be shocked if Villain leads again on the turn with a big draw, though (especially if 4 bets is not a cap and Hero could have 5-bet the flop). The flop 4-bet (once the pot is already heads-up) seems to indicate Villain plans to continue playing his draw aggressively, if that's what he has.

[Nick Royale]

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And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos.

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In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.)

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I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold?

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If we get checked to, a bet-fold sounds good to me.

I'm not going to be shocked if Villain leads again on the turn with a big draw, though (especially if 4 bets is not a cap and Hero could have 5-bet the flop). The flop 4-bet (once the pot is already heads-up) seems to indicate Villain plans to continue playing his draw aggressively, if that's what he has.

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Oh my [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
Maybe you counted the combos slightly wrong, but I read the entire hand totally wrong. I thought we were oop and villain cold called. This changes the entire hand, we don't need to discount KJo much and he'll never hold AsQs/AsJs. And since he ain't got position he is less likely to cap the flop with a draw, but if he is he'll probably bet the turn with it. However I wouldn't fold the flop. So I guess it comes down to how often he'll be playing a draw overly aggressive. It seems to me your read is strong so I'll probably just fold the turn if he bets. The fact that we're folding the turn ui along with the fact that he'll bet every turn makes the flop bet slimmer, but I still like it. Tricky situation, very read dependant.