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#1
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
Don't fold yet.
You need to peel against KJ, and Villain also could be playing a big draw (like J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) this way, I think. Actually, given the big draw possibilities, I'd consider calling again unimproved on the turn and river. |
#2
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
You think I should peel turn and river? Yeah the spades are out there, and JTs is a possibility. I did consider this that villain would bet and bluff a draw , and if I choose to call down I'm only getting around 4:1 on my money (reverse implied odds). Am I good 25% of the time? If he's on a big draw will I be good 25% of the time?
JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] |
#3
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
[ QUOTE ]
You think I should peel turn and river? Yeah the spades are out there, and JTs is a possibility. I did consider this that villain would bet and bluff a draw , and if I choose to call down I'm only getting around 4:1 on my money (reverse implied odds). Am I good 25% of the time? If he's on a big draw will I be good 25% of the time? JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] You're actually getting closer to 5:1, aren't you? (If you win, you also collect Villain's turn and river bets.) Plus, I think you need to at least see the turn, to try to spike an ace. KJ is mathematically 3 times as likely as 66, and we can't even narrow Villain down to just those hands. And once you're at the turn, you're getting more like 6:1 on a calldown. KJ and 66 is 12 combos you're losing to. QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, and Js9s is four combos you're beating. I don't know. On some turns (such as a non-ace spade) I think you can give it up, but I would call on a blank. |
#4
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
What about reverse implied odds? It will cost me 2.5 BB to see this river. Even if villain is on a play or draw will I be good enough of the time to warrant a call down.
JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] |
#5
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
[ QUOTE ]
What about reverse implied odds? It will cost me 2.5 BB to see this river. Even if villain is on a play or draw will I be good enough of the time to warrant a call down. JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Reverse implied odds are a factor. But you do get to see what falls on the turn before making a decision on that street. If the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls, for instance, I'm thinking it would be good to give up and fold. |
#6
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read.
JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] |
#7
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be very concerned about the spades, at the time I was somewhat concerned but I felt that reverse domination and drawing dead, were what made me fold. Yes I did 3bet/fold. I'll only do it in extremely rare situations. But yeah I'm starting to think it was perhaps wrong here. Even though I was confident of my read. JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] I don't like the flop fold, but I can make a case for it. Here it is: Villain's 4-bet reduces the possibility of a big draw. I don't think the 4-bet eliminates the possibility, but let's imagine that it does. That leaves KJ and 66. With KJs, Villain might've raised preflop. And KJo is only 7 combos, while 66 is 3 combos. You're getting an immediate 19:1, but spiking an ace will only give you a redraw, 30 percent of the time (if we can narrow Villain's holdings to KJo/66). You are drawing very badly, if Villain has 66. In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.) |
#8
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
[ QUOTE ]
And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.) [/ QUOTE ] I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold? |
#9
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
[ QUOTE ]
And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos. [/ QUOTE ] Ah, jeez, you're right. I did the combos wrong. (I forgot about the king in our hand when I was figuring the combos.) Well, 66 starts looking more likely now than I thought it was. And this becomes more true if we need to discount KJo, like you've said you want to. (Personally, I don't think we need to discount it too much. I suspect a lot of TAGs will overlimp KJo from MP1 in a live game.) But, while 66 gains in likelihood versus KJ when we replace my incorrect combos with the correct ones, the possibility that we're up against a big draw also goes up. In any case, I agree with you that we should not fold the flop. |
#10
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Re: AKs Flop Laydown
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] And KJo is only 5 combos, while 66 is 3 combos. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] In any case, I would actually call the 4-bet pretty automatically, but the decisions from that point on seem more difficult to me. (I'm not confident that continuing to call unimproved on the turn is really best.) [/ QUOTE ] I think I would need a good read that villain won't bet a big draw on the turn to be able to fold. In this case I wouldn't check/fold the turn, villain has been tricky earlier. It must be obvious for villain hero either has a big draw or paired a K. If villain has a draw he knows it not likely Hero has a draw and in that case he has to estimate how often Hero will fold a K if he bets a draw. My guess would be that villain knows Hero is a TAG and betting the turn with a draw won't win him the pot very often. Bet/fold? [/ QUOTE ] If we get checked to, a bet-fold sounds good to me. I'm not going to be shocked if Villain leads again on the turn with a big draw, though (especially if 4 bets is not a cap and Hero could have 5-bet the flop). The flop 4-bet (once the pot is already heads-up) seems to indicate Villain plans to continue playing his draw aggressively, if that's what he has. |
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