|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Turn Decision
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I 3-bet and fold to a cap. [/ QUOTE ] This is AWFUL! We have 8 outs against two pair!!!!! Folding is totally out of the question on this turn. That's why three-betting and folding to a cap is bad. We could consider: three-betting, calling a cap, and folding the river unimproved, but we can get to showdown more efficiently by just calling the raise and calling the river. For me this is a standard call-down. Folding is quite bad, because we have outs and often this will be a bluff or something like that. If checked to on the river I'm betting, and will consider folding to another check-raise unimproved. I need a pretty strong read to either three-bet the turn for value or to fold on this turn (that would have to be VERY strong... like I KNEW my opponent had a set). Calling down is what I'll do in like 90% of situations. [/ QUOTE ] Hey Deranged, I do agree that folding the turn to a c/r is not the best line most of the time with kings. This is because with hidden outs we have 8 clean outs to win. But... Lets consider the situation here. You have a opener whos not a maniac or overly aggro. With a board of 4,10,2,6 with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s. What two pair could he be raising 10/6's or 4/6's thats seems unlikely. He could be raising on a flush draw, I wonder what his turn agg. stats are? I think 44/22/66 are the most likely candidates. Like I said before Im probably not going to do this often but in this case I dont my line as awful. Plus the pot is still small so if we do happen to fold the best hand its not a catastrophe. I guess a case could be made for getting to sd cheaply by calling down if really need to see his trips on the end. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Turn Decision
Ackid,
Good post. A few things to consider: 1. Though the pot is small now, if we three-bet and then get capped, at that point the pot is huge. Folding then becomes a huge problem. 2. The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands. The main point, to me, is that I don't see much advantage to three-betting, but I see a lot of disadvantage to folding to a cap. If we call the check-raise, villain will usually bet the river even if he was semi-bluffing and missed. We don't have so strong a hand, in my opinion, to make sure that 4 bets go in on the turn and river. 3 BB gets us to showdown and we need to never forget that getting to showdown is a very valuable thing. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Turn Decision
Is there a reason why folding here is so bad? Like I mentioned in my earlier post he has to be bluffing here at least 25% of the time before we start showing a profit for calling down.
Is a 35/11/1 player really bluffing or playing a weaker hand then us here more then 25% of the time? I have been calling down these and Villain almost always (much better then 75%) is showing down a hand that beats me. Can someone explain a) why folding is so bad when we have an overpair to someone in a small-medium sized pot on an un-coordinated board who is check raising us on the turn with an AF of 1ish and b) whether my 25% for calling to be successful is correct. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Turn Decision
At this point I want to see a showdown, therefore I think calling down is the correct play. I want to see a showdown which this hand and by just calling here and check-calling the river unimproved we get to see it in the cheapest manner. If we 3-bet here and it gets capped and even if it does not get capped, the pot becomes larger and folding becomes more difficult on the river following our 3-bet.
|
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Turn Decision
[ QUOTE ]
The OP mentioned that villain did play some weird T high hands. [/ QUOTE ] I meant JT+ and T8s+, not two pair hands. Even if we rule out all two pair hands (which I don't think is too much of a stretch) so that I'm ahead of everything but 22, 44 and 66, I'm still not sure whether calling is correct. Yes, there are a lot of top pair hands he would play pre-flop, but I don't think he's aggressive enough to pull this play with them. If the T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] had been a different suit, that might sway my decision, but I simply don't see him check-raising the turn with A4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or a naked ten. Scott |
|
|