10/20 Q9s

[imashyboi]

This analysis is very indept, you have to remember though, we don't have enough time to actually consider all of this which is why raising or calling is fairly close. I didn't realize there was someone else left to act after us. Being that there is 1 more player(who called 2bets on the flop) left I think calling would be more profitable. If you closed the action on the turn then a raise is definitely a must for value.

[Nick Royale]

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This analysis is very indept, you have to remember though, we don't have enough time to actually consider all of this which is why raising or calling is fairly close.

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Making these calculations away from the table makes it easier to come to the right decision at the table.I felt getting the money into the pot on the river with a made hand would be more profitable than pushing a marginal edge, so I decided to investigate the matter.

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I didn't realize there was someone else left to act after us.

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I would raise hu on the turn if I thought I had a decent ammount of folding equity. Against a loose/passive who bets the turn after this aggression on the flop I don't think investing 3BB to get him to fold will be worth it since he'll fold very rarely. I would just call the turn and fold the river UI, losing only 1BB. That is if I'm confident in my read.

MP2 calls, UTG 3bets and leads into you on the river:

[(3+3x)*.37 - 3*.63] + [(2+2y)*.935 - 2*.065] =
[(3+3*.8)*.37 - 3*.63] + [(2+2*.65)*.935 - 2*.065] =
[(5.4)*.37 - 1.89] + [(3.3)*.935 - .13] =
[.108] + [2.955] =
+ 3.063BB


Definitely possible.
Should our equity drop if UTG 3bets. Maybe.
Should the % MP calls the turn raise be increased seeing as he's loose. Probably.
Is MP more likely to call two cold on the river because of the deception of our turn raise. Maybe.
Do metagame considerations have an effect. Always.

All I'm pointing out is that the scale between right and wrong is a lot closer than your original equations make it out to be.

It's probably a lot worse than I figured when I made my original post but it's definitely closer than you make it out to be.

[Nick Royale]

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Definitely possible.


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This will happen very rarely against loose passives and when it does it means we'll have at most 14 outs (30% equity). A loose passive won't 3-bet on this coordinated board with less than a set and he's more likely to already hold a straight.

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Should our equity drop if UTG 3bets. Maybe.


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Not maybe, definately.

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Should the % MP calls the turn raise be increased seeing as he's loose. Probably.

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I first estimated 80%, I think that's too low given his flop aggression. At the same time he could have gotten aggressive on the flop with a marginal hand to thin the field. However, x=<90% for sure.

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Is MP more likely to call two cold on the river because of the deception of our turn raise. Maybe.
Do metagame considerations have an effect. Always.

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I'm not really sure what you mean. We'll get more callers by varying our play and raise big draws sometimes. This should be done occassionally. And this isn't my favorite spot to be doing it since I think the EV of a call is much higher than the EV of a raise. We should varying our play when there's only a small differance. I would like some folding equity here to lower the gap between the 2 lines to make me like raising the turn.

[imashyboi]

Good investigation by the way. I would have done the same if I was any good at math, I'll let the math wiz take care of the numbers from here on.

If the pot was HU it really depends who we are playing against. The only reason why I'd want to raise on the turn HU is so he knows that I'm aggressive and that I'm willing to push here with a semi-marginal hand with a big draw, trying to build a aggressive image I guess. I don't think we can fold many hands on the turn though, I'm sure anyone who has a T will the raise. I better bluff would be an A/Kc, I think more players are willing to fold when those cards flops.

if mp2 is loose post and has a T he wont want to fld it very much which is good. That being said, you have a pair and a strt-flsh draw, so you are huge. You are huge. I like teh aggro