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Re: ODDs math question
Thanks for you answer. Here are my comments.
I'm really asking for the answer to the general probability question: If any one of 3 events a,b, or c, will cause event y to occur, and the probabilities of a, b, and c occurring are: a=d b=e c=f Is the probability that y will occur equal to?: d + e + f = Probability of y occuring And if that is the correct formula for the odds of y occuring, where did I go wrong in my calculations. With a pocket pair we have the following probabilites for a,b, and c. a = (2 outs)/(52-2 or 50 cards) = .04 b = (2 outs)/(52-3 or 49 cards) = .041 c = (2 outs)/(52-4 or 48 cards) = .042 So why aren't the odds of y (getting trips) equal to: .04 + .041 + .042 = 12.3% The web site says it's 10.8% Remember, we're ONLY concerned with the case of having any pocket pair, and getting 3 of a kind on the flop. NOT any other case. Let's keep it simple. If you have any further insight, please comment. Thank you for your help. Eric |
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