#11
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Re: Top set--No bet
I would call if I got (implied) odds to fill up
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#12
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Re: Top set--No bet
Just call and fold turn unimproved? Don't you think someone in position will raise this flop with AdAx or KdKx?
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#13
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Re: Top set--No bet
Well, it does depend alot on the player, and how much we have behind us(and how likely he is to pay off with a made flush on paired board). I do prefer to not go allin on the flop though, atleast without a good read. I might bet turn if there's enough room to fold to an allin, or check/call if he's usually beting weak.
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#14
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Re: Top set--No bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd pot flop and then go from there, preferebly not put much more money in the pot without improving. [/ QUOTE ] What happens if: Villain min raises flop. Villain makes a pot size raise. Villain just calls. [/ QUOTE ] Villain minraise, I call. Potsized raise I think it's push or fold, depends on feel/read but I do both with a little err on the fold side probably against an unknown. Villain calls, I bet turn regardless of what falls, however if a diamond falls and he raises I'll probably fold, unless he gives me odds. |
#15
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Re: Top set--No bet
I would think we lead flop for 3/4 to PSB and I'd probably push over the top of any raise, especially one by the button who could be on an overpair with a diamond. This could also put a sqeeze play on MP who may be drawing to a 4th diamond and might fold under pressure.
I just don't think I could fold on this flop to a raise. Especially since we can stack someone if we boat up. c/r seems bad here. I don't think we gain any information or folding equity by it. If the button is playing AA or KK with a diamond I think he calls the push thinking he's either ahead or has enough outs. |
#16
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Re: Top set--No bet
I would like to hear more about c/r vs. leading PSB here. I've been thinking about this and haven't really wrapped my head around it yet. I think the chances of me being raised are close to zero if I lead. I am happy to get it in on the flop. I think a c/r does have more FE than you guys are giving credit for. Still pondering.
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#17
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Re: Top set--No bet
[ QUOTE ]
I would like to hear more about c/r vs. leading PSB here. I've been thinking about this and haven't really wrapped my head around it yet. I think the chances of me being raised are close to zero if I lead. I am happy to get it in on the flop. I think a c/r does have more FE than you guys are giving credit for. Still pondering. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah it probably has some FE, but it's more likely to be called when you're behind and win small pot when you're ahead. So I like to play these kinds of hands a little more safe and just bet out. |
#18
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Re: Top set--No bet
i'm no expert but i've always thought that if you lead the flop with a made set, especially on a draw-heavy board, it makes your decisions a lot easier for you. on this board i definitely come out firing, and if i get raised, push the flop. obviously this is read-dependent, but i think fancy play is dangerous on a three-flush flop.
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#19
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Re: Top set--No bet
It seems that this is a quantitative question. i've wondered about it before, so I did the math for the flop... I hope.
p(specific two suited, when 3 of same are on the flop) =0.06 per person p(no flush per person) = 0.9538 opponents = 7 p(no flush at table)= 0.72 (this is a suprise to me) EV You make full/quads: 0.22 x 1 (fraction you win) You are unimproved: 0.78 x 0.37 (fraction you win when your opponent doesn't have, or make, a flush; =1-(0.28 (has flush) + 0.35 (makes flush) EV = 0.51 So, given overlay the flop must be played. I have no idea how often villian folds to a push here. Maybe someone who is mathy can take this further to argue an optimal play? |
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