Heads Up SNG standard D

[Mr_J]

You can make sure not overbetting, but you can't adjust your 'bet size' (ie tourney buyin).

[cardsharkk04]

So you are saying he needs $1800 to play $10 sit n go's?
Is it just me or does that sound like a fricking huge bank roll. I thought 30/40 buyins was plenty. I guess I could be way off...........

[BillC]

bankroll=-ln(r)v/(2E) where v=variance, E=expectation, and r=risk of ruin.
You bankroll is your total wealth (including future earnings) minus expenses, not your "gambling bank", or "what you can afford to lose"
You can Kelly bet by changing buy-ins, moving up or down according to bankroll.

Btw E=.6 is um, optimistic.

[Chipp Leider]

[ QUOTE ]
but you can't adjust your 'bet size' (ie tourney buyin).

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't you? Actually, w/ the ability to multi-table proportional betting is quite feasible, since you have the ability to increment much more precisely (compared to a one-tabler).

Of course the general hassle makes this unpractical for the large majority. You're familiar w/ BJ, correct? I suggest looking into TH's "mini-bank" concept, seems to be (IMO) the best way of approaching the problem, short of CE anyway.

My .02 bb's.

The game is HEADS UP (that is, one on one) sit-n-go where our hero wins 60% of his matches and loses 40% of his matches. This translates into an ROI of 9% per match given that the buy-in is 10+1 or 20+2 or 50+5. What is the smallest number of buy-ins that hero must have in his bankroll so that he will have a risk of ruin of ZERO?

[Chipp Leider]

[ QUOTE ]
What is the smallest number of buy-ins that hero must have in his bankroll so that he will have a risk of ruin of ZERO?

[/ QUOTE ]

Infinite, clearly.

How about 1% risk of ruin?

[Chipp Leider]

[ QUOTE ]
How about 1% risk of ruin?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming a net return of $.99 and an SD of $6.9, about $111, so like 10 buy-ins.

<edit:> Provisos: You do not vary in stakes after any swings, you do not withdraw funds from the bankroll, and your goal is to at least triple your stake.

I'm sure Bill will correct me if anything I'm saying is off here.

[BillC]

I am not sure what units his SD is in: $ or buy-ins. But for a
1% risk of ruin you need to have a bank of about 2.5 times variance/EV.

Bill C

[Izverg04]

Uh, this is a heads-up game. You don't specify SD, only winrate, SD then follows. SD~$10 for a wide range of winrates. In the specified case SD=$9.8.

1% BR=-ln(0.01)/2 * 9.8^2/1 = $221 = 20 buy-ins