quick poll -- 88 UTG+1

[mackthefork]

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It's not even close

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OK, who voted fold??

I would raise 77 against most opponents as well. With 66, I would like more information about the other players in the hand. 55 I usually muck, but will occasionally 3-bet if the conditions are right.

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Hi all

I voted fold, I find myself wanting to raise with it, but I'm always sitting at a table with a bunch of 6% preflop raisers, and it's not really that good against them.

Mack

[scotty34]

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You've got four live people behind you, you are a significant underdog versus most player's UTG PFR range

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I don't have Pokerstove on this computer, but I'd be interested to see what the hot/cold is for 88 vs top 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent of hands. At .5/1, few of the players are positionally aware, so if they are a 50/20 player, I think ~20 PFR from UTG isn't all that far off. However, saying that, .5/1 is also known to be a very passive game so a PFR might deserve more respect for that point.

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You do have position on the PFR and that is a saving grace.

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Yes, I think this is quite important. It also allows us to face the field with 3-cold.

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* Bad implied odds: This is the classic problem of overcards versus a pocket pair. The overcards can frequently get away on the turn when they are losing. 88 on the other hand usually finds itself trapped into paying off. You lose bigger pots than you win.

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Players at this level will make incorrect calls with two overcards on the turn ALL THE TIME. Heck, they do it at 5/10 with huge regularity IMO. Again due to the passive nature of this game, we can usually get away from it when raised on a board we do not like.

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** No significant fold equity: Villain will make an incorrect fold versus 88 roughly never.

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Then bet for value.

[JTMoney42]

<u>88 Vs Various Ranges</u>

Top 5%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
34.0011 % 33.79% 00.21% { 8d8h }
65.9989 % 65.79% 00.21% { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }


Top 10%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
43.5811 % 43.00% 00.59% { 8d8h }
56.4189 % 55.83% 00.59% { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


Top 15%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
48.5644 % 48.10% 00.46% { 8d8h }
51.4356 % 50.97% 00.46% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

Top 20%
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
51.1897 % 50.78% 00.41% { 8d8h }
48.8103 % 48.40% 00.41% { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

My Thoughts:
Although PokerStove isn't a great way to measure preflop decisions, these calculations just goes to show, that you're really behind a good portion of this range. Having position and since initiative is not much of an issue here. That might add say 5% or so to our equity.. Which may actually push this closer to a fold than a reraise.. Even though I voted reraise
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kidcolin]

A problem with your analysis is that you're only considering yourself and UTG. You also have 4 other guys to worry about.

And how does position and initiative add 5% to our equity, yet push the decision closer to a fold than a reraise?

[wheelz]

88 is probably where i draw the line.

[Wynton]

I don't think fold equity is the key question. I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

But frankly, this assumption is so tenuous that I almost think it doesn't matter. Once 1-2 orbits have gone by, there will be lots of important information available that affects the decision.

We might learn that UTG is tight, loose, plays terribly postflop or whatever. We might find that the bb defends no matter how many bets he has to call. We might find that 3-betting is a virtual guarantee to get the pot HU.

But because I figure that at the "typical" 5/10 table 3-betting will generally make this a HU situation, I'd vote for raise with 88.

[Redd]

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I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

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What sort of hand range do you put him on? Do you include 77? 66?

It seems a typical player wouldn't raise anything with an unpaired undercard in it here, and if we assume no lower pockets we're at best a coin flip against two overs, or at worst we're absolutely destroyed by a bigger pocket.

[Wynton]

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I reraise 88 - against a table of total unknowns at 5/10 - because I suspect that my hand is better than the average hand UTG raised with in the first place.

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What sort of hand range do you put him on? Do you include 77? 66?

It seems a typical player wouldn't raise anything with an unpaired undercard in it here, and if we assume no lower pockets we're at best a coin flip against two overs, or at worst we're absolutely destroyed by a bigger pocket.

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At this unknown 5/10 table, I think utg could raise with: 66, 77, AK, AQ, AJ, A10, KQ, KJ, K10, QJ, QT, JTs, A8s. Some players will also raise with lower pairs, 109s, 98s, and any Axs, but they are probably in the minority.

I don't know if you're correct about the coin flip situation. Part of the equation is that I expect the unknown player will fold occasionally on the flop, and usually on the turn without help.

If villain has something like KT, I think there's a decent chance he may actually fold on the flop. So is KJ really a coinflip against 88 if the action stops on the flop? What about if the action stops on the turn?

[car ramrod]

I think it is close, and I'm suprised so many think this is an easy raise against an unknown utg. I would like to have a read before raising, but I think it is close either way.
I would like to hear more arguments for raising.

[jba]

"I think it is close, and I'm suprised so many think this is an easy raise against an unknown utg."