($55) ITM push, my heart says yes but my brain says no

[yvesaint]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (3 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero (t3020)
BB (t765)
Button (t6215)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t800</font>, Hero pushes

im new to STTs, is there some formula i can use to calculate my $EV if i can put in his calling range or something, especially with these chip stacks

[Nick M]

yeah go for it, you probably have the dude crushed...only thing though is the button does have a lot of room to call you. If you both had like 4k or so then there wouldn't be a question, I push. But I guess this does require thinking. You could flat call and protect. Check folding the flop unless it comes Ace or queen high if the SS gets tricky preflop and folds. I like pushing though and gamble for first if he calls you.

[wuwei]

For what it's worth, I think this is a call preflop. While pushing is "playing for first," I would accept a very likely $50 in prize money for eliminating the BB, and then play for first.

Are you familiar with ICM and SNG Power Tools?

If I were analyzing the push, I'd start by looking at the case where you have zero folding equity, i.e. start by looking at calling an open push from the button. In that case, even if he's pushing any two cards the $EV of calling is zero. As you tighten his range, it just gets worse. Then, I'd try to figure out how often he has to fold to make the push profitable. I suppose I'd do something like this: he raises with x% of hands and only calls with y% of hands. Then compare the outcomes.

Yes, I'm waving my hands in the air a bit there, I've never actually worked out that second part.

Welcome to this forum, nice to have you here. I know I like reading your posts in the NL ring forums.

[applejuicekid]

I would push AQ here. I would push way worse than AQ as well.

[yvesaint]

thanks wuwei, no, i am not really familiar with ICM and SNG power tools - i assume theyll be in the faq, which i am reading right now?

his calling range here is probably AK-A2, KQ-K8, AA-44, QJ-Q9 (maybe im off) he has been fairly tight ever since it has been 5-handed, and got his stack by doubling up w/AA

im not sure if his raising range is much larger than that, however

thanks for the welcome. are there any specific STT posters that i should really read/look out for? from what i see, curtains is good (and a friggin luckbox, 20+% roi is ridiculous), and raptor but i dont think hes playing many 215s now anyways

[bigt439]

If this is true:

[ QUOTE ]


he has been fairly tight ever since it has been 5-handed

[/ QUOTE ]

Then this is not:

[ QUOTE ]


his calling range here is probably AK-A2, KQ-K8, AA-44, QJ-Q9 (maybe im off)


[/ QUOTE ]

That is more likely to be his min raising range there and he is not calling a push with much of it. Hard to say precisely what the min raise means because he is more than likely doing it because of BB's stack size. There is a lot of dead money in the pot and I think your range has him in bad shape and that you have lots of FE. I push.

[yvesaint]

i think the fact that he has me covered 2x and we are in the ITM opens up his calling range a lot

not to mention i have been pushing a ton of hands since then

but you can probably knock his range down to AK-A5, KQ-KT, AA-55 i guess

[Annulus]

edit,
misread the hand originally. hmmm, ,tough hand. I can make a case for calling or pushing.

[xJMPx]

I'll just add this, and you can take if for what it's worth. If he calls you, there is not a range that would make it +$EV for you. Ie., if you assume he will call you with any two, your best case 0 EV.

I'll leave it up to someone of figure out how often he has to fold to make this a push.

Edit: I just played around with SNGPT a little more, and ran some cases where Hero is open pushing into the big stack here. Even if the big stack is only calling with TT+,AQs+,AKo it is only +0.7% EV.

So, if we consider that if he calls it always -EV and that if were were open pushing he has to be real tight here to make it acceptably +EV we can conclude, with some degree of confidence, that this is a fold.

This is a real 'loose' analysis, but I think it works alright...thoughts?

[Jack Fate]

Devin, it was a good analysis for why not to push. But that doesn't mean you have to fold! This is a call.