Pocket TT

[Pedigree]

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I was afraid of the turn card, but I still didn't know if I was ahead or behind. For all I knew UTG was drawing to an inside STR8 (AXs) but the turn didn't help him and MP1 could have had a good pocket pair but weaker than mine (not a weak J)

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In either case giving a free card isn't a total disaster. That's a total of 5 potential outs against you worst case scenario. It's worth it to avoid a check raise from a completed draw or just wasting a bet against a Jack.

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We are both conceding that it's possible I am still ahead and that I'm going to call the river if I don't bet the turn. (cost 1 bet)

If I bet and get check raised the hand is over. (cost 1 bet)

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]it is? You're not calling to hit your flush?

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So I still don't see the downside of betting the turn and perhaps getting UTG to fold an inside STR8 draw or weaker pair. Every scenario is one bet, but this one has some small potential upside of a fold (however small).

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This would be true without the flush draw. Either HPFAP or SSHE talks about checking behind on the turn with a lot of outs and a hand that might be good and betting on the turn with a hand that might be good with a few outs.

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I guess what it really comes down to is what probability I assign myself for being ahead because if's it's better than 1/3, then betting and getting 2 calls or betting and potentially getting a fold are both fine.

If I think I am almost certainly behind, then checking and folding saves a bet.

If I think I am probably behind and the river is dangerous, then checking and folding saves a bet.

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I think there's very little chance you are ahead at this point in the hand.